AI Crystal Ball Reveals Shocking Premier League Christmas Predictions for 2025-26 Season

Arsenal find themselves atop the Premier League standings on Christmas Day for the fifth occasion in club history.

Mikel Arteta's defensively solid squad has maintained their position at the summit throughout the campaign, though they entered the holiday season with somewhat disappointing recent results, enabling Manchester City to narrow what was once a seven-point advantage down to merely two points.

With Aston Villa establishing themselves as legitimate contenders among the top clubs and teams like Chelsea and Liverpool desperately fighting to stay competitive, the 2025–26 Premier League championship battle looks set to deliver excitement throughout the remaining half of the season.

Of the past 33 Christmas leaders, 17 have successfully claimed the title, though Arsenal won't be counting their chickens just yet. The Gunners are responsible for three of those 16 failures to convert, including two instances within the previous three campaigns.

Here's how Opta's analytical model forecasts the remainder of the season will unfold.

Analytical Model Projects Premier League Championship Battle

Though we're witnessing a three-way contest during Christmas, the analytical model predicts Aston Villa will gradually lose momentum, despite Unai Emery's team still being favored to secure third place when everything concludes next May.

Rather, it's Arsenal who maintain their advantage in this projection. A challenging December period, heavily influenced by injury problems, has put them in a battle, but the Gunners remain clear favorites with their championship prospects rated at 68.7%.

Man City's effort to reduce the deficit has proven effective so far but, based on the model's calculations, will eventually come up short. Pep Guardiola's team is projected to finish approximately six points behind Arsenal with only a 24.4% probability of claiming the trophy.

Much may depend on the season's final weeks. City welcomes Arsenal on April 18 with seven matches remaining and even concludes their season at home against Villa.

Arsenal's closing schedule appears more favorable, though it does feature a challenging encounter with Newcastle United and a season-ending battle against giant-slaying Crystal Palace.

European Competition Qualification

Current champions Liverpool are virtually guaranteed to surrender their title, given merely a 0.97% likelihood of retaining the championship following a disappointing campaign start, but there's clear belief that the worst period is over for Arne Slot's team.

The Reds are expected to climb back to fourth position, surviving a contest with Chelsea that may ultimately be determined when these clubs clash in early May. Fortunately for Enzo Maresca, fifth place should almost certainly secure Champions League participation.

Crystal Palace represent the unfortunate team heading the pursuing group, though few Eagles supporters would complain about seeing their club finish sixth and earning Europa League qualification—a suitable farewell present for captain Marc Guéhi.

Palace receive a 0% title-winning probability, but notably, Manchester United holds 0.01% despite being projected to finish seventh. Europa League participation would await Ruben Amorim's squad.

Following them, Newcastle United are expected to claim eighth after a sluggish season beginning, representing a dramatic reversal of fortunes compared to local rivals Sunderland's predictions. Régis Le Bris's team will celebrate Christmas in sixth but are forecast to drop to 12th during the next six months.

Positioned between the Tyne-Wear adversaries are Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford and Everton, all competing for Conference League qualification.

Bottom Three Battle

40 points represents the widely recognized benchmark for Premier League survival, and the analytical model anticipates this standard will hold true this campaign.

Tottenham Hotspur should maintain sufficient distance to avoid genuine concern, despite the troubling prospect of them occupying the table's lower reaches for a consecutive season being enough to terrify any supporter of Thomas Frank's team.

Both Fulham and Bournemouth will settle into mid-table anonymity before the campaign concludes, eight points clear of the crucial 40-point mark. Beneath them, however, five clubs are set for a survival battle during the season's second half.

Nottingham Forest have disappointed significantly thus far, but the model predicts Sean Dyche's team will escape the relegation fight, with Leeds United also doing sufficient work to secure their top-flight status for next season.

Underneath them, however, lies the present bottom trio. West Ham United are forecast for relegation with approximately 36 points—five short of safety—while Burnley similarly fails to prevent demotion with a final tally around 30 points.

At the very bottom sit Wolverhampton Wanderers, predicted to accumulate roughly 19 points by season's end—an optimistic projection for a team that has managed only two draws and 15 defeats thus far.

Survival appears nearly impossible for Wolves, whose attention must now shift to avoiding becoming the Premier League's historically worst performing team.

Derby County currently holds that unwanted distinction with 11 points from their 2007–08 campaign, but even that remarkably low total seems optimistic given Rob Edwards' side's current form.