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Similar to the previous season, the 2025–26 La Liga championship battle is developing into a tight contest between Barcelona and Real Madrid.
These two giants have exchanged leads throughout the campaign, alternating at the top of the standings in what has been an unpredictable yet thrilling fight for the Spanish title. The Catalans currently hold a four-point advantage over Los Blancos at the peak—a margin that might have expanded further this weekend.
Barcelona were certainly hoping Atlético Madrid could steal points from their cross-town opponents on Sunday night; indeed, Diego Simeone's squad had accomplished this in the prior six Madrid derbies in La Liga. However, the 15-time European titleholders, who controversially dropped to 10 players in the final stages, managed a 3–2 comeback triumph to keep pressure on the table-toppers.
This crucial victory keeps Real Madrid alive in the La Liga championship hunt, which may ultimately be decided by May's El Clásico. Considering its recent performance, Álvaro Arbeloa's team will fancy its odds of preventing the current champions from achieving consecutive titles.
But what does Opta's supercomputer think about Los Blancos' prospects of claiming their historic 37th La Liga championship?
Supercomputer's Predicted 2025–26 La Liga Table
La Liga Title Race
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Barcelona | 73 | 91.37 | 73.20 |
2. | Real Madrid | 69 | 87.83 | 26.80 |
3. | Atlético Madrid | 57 | 73.08 | 0.00 |
4. | Villarreal | 58 | 72.44 | 0.00 |
Despite Real Madrid's impressive triumph over Atlético Madrid, Opta still favors Barcelona heavily in the La Liga championship race. The Catalans possess a projected 73.20% probability of successfully retaining the Spanish title.
Flick's squad is anticipated to accumulate approximately 91 points by the final matchday, three more than their championship-winning total from last season. The supercomputer predicts Barcelona will secure roughly 18 points from their remaining nine La Liga matches.
While it may appear that the Catalans are dropping considerable points, Los Blancos are still not forecast to close the gap. Actually, Opta projects Real Madrid finishing 2025–26 with nearly 88 points—three behind their arch-rivals.
The 15-time European champions possess only a 26.80% probability of reaching the summit in Spain, a figure that was significantly higher before they endured consecutive league losses to Osasuna and Getafe several weeks ago.
Nevertheless, the chances are better than Atlético Madrid and Villarreal's zero prospects of securing La Liga triumph.
How Real Madrid's Next Five La Liga Games Compare to Barcelona's
Barcelona (73 points) | Real Madrid (69 points) |
|---|---|
Atlético Madrid (A) – April 5 | Mallorca (A) – April 4 |
Espanyol (H) – April 11 | Girona (H) – April 10 |
Celta Vigo (H) – April 22 | Alavés (H) – April 22 |
Getafe (A) – April 26 | Real Betis (A) – April 26 |
Osasuna (A) – May 3 | Espanyol (A) – May 3 |
Barcelona emerge from the March international pause to confront the second-most challenging test remaining on their domestic schedule: Atlético Madrid. The club's previous visit to the Metropolitano resulted in a devastating 4–0 loss.
The fixture list doesn't become much kinder for Flick's team. Between the Champions League quarterfinals, where Barcelona will clash with Atlético Madrid, they must entertain an always challenging Catalan derby before hosting a dangerous Celta Vigo at the Camp Nou.
Following that are two intimidating away journeys to Getafe and Osasuna, two clubs with sufficient ability to upset Real Madrid just weeks earlier.
As for Los Blancos, they face a considerably easier path once league play resumes. Encounters with relegation-threatened Mallorca and Alavés, plus a faltering Girona outfit should present little difficulty for Arbeloa's squad.
Real Betis represent a more significant challenge, but Real Madrid already crushed them 5–1 in the first meeting. Espanyol, meanwhile, have only beaten the Spanish powerhouse once in their previous six encounters.