AI Supercomputer Reveals Shocking Champions League Winner Prediction as Knockout Drama Unfolds
We've reached the midway stage of the newly implemented Champions League knockout playoff round, and plenty remains undecided across Europe.
Although several teams secured commanding victories in the eight opening legs, no advantage is unassailable in Europe's top tournament. Famous for surprises, drama and pure excitement, particularly in the elimination rounds, we can expect mayhem in next week's crucial return matches.
The complete lineup for the Champions League round of 16 will be determined shortly, and this could significantly influence where the trophy ultimately ends up. Forecasting which club will lift it at the conclusion of another spectacular season is virtually impossible.
Thankfully, the Opta supercomputer has been working overtime, determining which teams are likely to advance from the knockout playoffs, along with identifying the tournament's most probable champion.
Champions League Knockout Playoff Winners Projected
Champions League Knockout Playoff Winners Projected
Club | Chances of Reaching Last 16 |
|---|---|
Newcastle | 99.77% |
Bayer Leverkusen | 93.67% |
Galatasaray | 93.63% |
Paris Saint-Germain | 93.30% |
Borussia Dortmund | 89.24% |
Real Madrid | 87.28% |
Atlético Madrid | 74.46% |
Bodø/Glimt | 57.38% |
Inter | 42.62% |
Club Brugge | 25.54% |
Benfica | 12.72% |
Atalanta | 10.76% |
Monaco | 6.70% |
Juventus | 6.37% |
Olympiacos | 6.33% |
Qarabağ | 0.23% |
Newcastle United have virtually secured their spot in the round of 16 as the most impressive winners from the playoff first legs. Their challenging journey to Qarabağ resulted in a 6–1 victory, allowing them to feel comfortable at St James's Park, particularly with a 99.77% probability of advancing—a figure that actually appears slightly conservative given their five-goal cushion.
Bayer Leverkusen overcame Olympiacos in one of the more modest playoff matchups, securing a 2–0 away victory in Greece to establish a solid foundation for last 16 qualification. Galatasaray delivered a more decisive performance, defeating 10-man Juventus 5–2 in Turkey. They should complete the job on aggregate.
Current European titleholders Paris Saint-Germain mounted a comeback from two goals down to defeat compatriots Monaco 3–2 at the Stade Louis II and are anticipated to seal progression in Paris next week. The supercomputer assigns them a 93.30% probability of reaching the round of 16.
The outlook appears favorable for both finalists from the 2023–24 Champions League as well. Borussia Dortmund secured a 2–0 home victory over Atalanta, while Real Madrid claimed a 1–0 win in a contentious encounter at Benfica. The record European titleholders have an 87.28% probability of maintaining their lead at the Bernabéu.
Despite also winning by two goals with a 3–1 triumph against last season's finalists Inter, dark horses Bodø/Glimt are given just a 57.38% chance of advancing after their visit to San Siro. Having defeated Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and now Inter in their last three matches, they cannot be dismissed in Milan.
The sole first leg that finished level was the 3–3 stalemate between Atlético Madrid and Club Brugge in Belgium. Predictably, with home advantage and a stronger roster for the second leg, the Spanish side is expected to prevail overall.
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner
Club | Chances of Winning Champions League |
|---|---|
Arsenal | 26.86% |
Bayern Munich | 15.19% |
Man City | 12.75% |
Liverpool | 9.48% |
Chelsea | 7.14% |
Barcelona | 5.75% |
PSG | 5.53% |
Newcastle | 4.47% |
Real Madrid | 3.10% |
Sporting CP | 2.02% |
Tottenham | 1.85% |
Borussia Dortmund | 1.41% |
Inter | 1.35% |
Bayer Leverkusen | 1.25% |
The opening leg of the playoff matches has barely changed the dynamics regarding the overall tournament winner. The supercomputer continues to firmly support Arsenal for their maiden Champions League triumph, with this confidence backed by their perfect eight-win record during the league phase.
Bayern Munich dropped points only against Arsenal in the league phase, and their excellent European form positions them as second favorites. The German powerhouse has struggled domestically recently but still possesses sufficient attacking quality to secure another continental title.
The Premier League features prominently in the top five, with Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea all receiving reasonable championship prospects. All three have claimed the trophy in the past seven seasons and recorded impressive victories during the league phase—despite being far from perfect.
PSG have the opportunity to retain their crown, a rare feat for anyone besides Real Madrid in Europe, though Luis Enrique's former team Barcelona receives slightly better odds from the supercomputer. These two clubs could potentially clash in the round of 16 as well.
Newcastle can take satisfaction in having superior title odds compared to Real Madrid, primarily due to their current playoff position. Should both reach the round of 16, few would genuinely argue that the Magpies have better championship prospects than the 15-time winners.