AI Supercomputer Reveals Shocking Champions League Winner Prediction Following Last 16 Draw
The Champions League knockout phase launched spectacularly through an exciting playoff round, and the scene is now prepared for the round of 16.
From additional Bodø/Glimt brilliance to Atalanta's remarkable comeback or the goal-fest in Galatasaray's victory, the playoff round has established the benchmarks anticipated for the rest of the knockout competition.
Now Europe's remaining giants join the battle and Friday's round of 16 draw has created some captivating matchups. Challenging fixtures for continental elite create a difficult path to the final showdown, while others have received more favorable routes to success.
After frantically recalculating the probabilities following the last 16 draw, here's who the legendary Opta supercomputer currently predicts will claim the European title this campaign.
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League WInner
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League WInner

Although the supercomputer's calculations haven't shifted dramatically since the draw, there has been some adjustment in the results. For instance, Arsenal maintain their position as clear frontrunners for their inaugural Champions League trophy, but despite facing Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16 and being placed in the more favorable bracket half, their winning probability has decreased by 2.05%.
Bayern Munich stay considerably behind the Gunners in the supercomputer's analysis, with Vincent Kompany's squad positioned in the tougher bracket section. A confrontation with Atalanta, who recently eliminated Bundesliga powerhouse Borussia Dortmund, looms in the last 16, potentially followed by encounters with Real Madrid, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea or Paris Saint-Germain in later rounds.
Liverpool's prospects for a seventh European title have improved following the draw, with the Reds avoiding a matchup against Atlético Madrid in the last 16 and instead facing Galatasaray—who previously defeated Arne Slot's team during the league phase. Manchester City, facing a challenging tie against Real Madrid, receive slightly reduced odds for a second championship.
Club | Chances of Winning |
|---|---|
Arsenal | 27.40% |
Bayern Munich | 14.28% |
Liverpool | 12.83% |
Manchester City | 10.79% |
Barcelona | 7.72% |
Chelsea | 6.86% |
Newcastle United | 4.66% |
Paris Saint-Germain | 4.64% |
Real Madrid | 2.78% |
Sporting CP | 2.73% |
Atlético Madrid | 2.00% |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1.22% |
Atalanta | 1.06% |
Bayer Leverkusen | 0.47% |
Bodø/Glimt | 0.39% |
Galatasaray | 0.17% |
Barcelona received favorable placement in the easier bracket half, though their last 16 encounter with Newcastle United will remain challenging. They rank as fifth favorites for the title, surpassing Chelsea after the draw. The Blues received a difficult assignment facing defending European champions Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16, followed by potentially demanding quarterfinal and semifinal matches if they advance.
PSG position themselves below their upcoming opponents Chelsea and have actually dropped behind Newcastle in the supercomputer's calculations—despite the Magpies needing to overcome Barça in the last 16.
The outlook appears dim for Real Madrid, who continue struggling to impress in continental competition. They rank below PSG and only slightly ahead of Portuguese club Sporting CP and city neighbors Atlético Madrid.
Champions League Last 16 Fixtures
Champions League Last 16 Fixtures
Fixture | Most Likely Winner (Supercomputer Odds of Progression) |
|---|---|
Atalanta vs. Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich (76.83%) |
Atlético Madrid vs. Tottenham | Atlético Madrid (53.71%) |
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal | Arsenal (85.85%) |
Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP | Sporting CP (63.98%) |
Galatasaray vs. Liverpool | Liverpool (82.33%) |
Newcastle vs. Barcelona | Barcelona (55.34%) |
PSG vs. Chelsea | Chelsea (53.34%) |
Real Madrid vs. Man City | Man City (64.35%) |