AI Supercomputer Reveals Shocking La Liga Title Predictions After Just 8 Matches
Barcelona missed the chance to top La Liga heading into the October international break, suffering a shocking 4–1 loss to an resurgent Sevilla side on Sunday afternoon.
Real Madrid's commanding 3–1 victory against a strong Villarreal team means Carlo Ancelotti's squad now sits at the summit during this second pause of the 2025–26 campaign.
Spain's two giants are expected to trade positions at the top throughout this season, with Diego Simeone's Atlético Madrid being the sole club to disrupt their stranglehold on La Liga in the last ten years. Though Atlético has shown renewed vigor in recent weeks after a disappointing campaign start, it appears doubtful that a third contender will emerge in the title conversation.
No La Liga winner has successfully defended their championship since Barcelona achieved consecutive titles in 2019, suggesting this pattern favors the current table-toppers to claim the trophy come next May.
Here's how Opta's analytical model forecasts Spain's title battle to unfold.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 La Liga Title Race
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Real Madrid | 21 | 83.69 | 53.90 |
2. | Barcelona | 19 | 81.25 | 38.56 |
3. | Atlético Madrid | 13 | 69.18 | 4.17 |
Barcelona's stumble in Seville has given Madrid a two-point advantage at the league's summit, with Opta now considering Ancelotti's team as the frontrunners for the championship.
Madrid are forecast to accumulate just over 83 points en route to the title, which would represent the lowest winning total for a La Liga champion since Los Blancos managed 76 points in 2006–07.
Despite their narrow current lead over Barcelona and a projected finish of barely two additional points, Madrid's title odds stand at 53.9%. Barcelona holds a 38.56% probability, anticipated to conclude with slightly more than 81 points—seven below their previous season's total.
Opta predicts Atlético Madrid, currently enjoying a five-match unbeaten streak domestically, will secure third place—matching their finish in three of the last four campaigns. However, they're expected to trail significantly, accumulating fewer than 70 points. Consequently, the supercomputer assigns them just a 4.17% likelihood of capturing their third La Liga crown since 2013–14.
The present third-place occupants, Villarreal (2.56%), represent the only other club with above a 1% probability of claiming the championship. Therefore, a two-way battle is anticipated between the Clásico adversaries.