AI Supercomputer Reveals Shocking Odds for Real Madrid's La Liga Glory with Arbeloa at the Helm
Following several challenging months, Real Madrid appear to be legitimate La Liga championship contenders once more after claiming a commanding 2–0 win against third-placed Villarreal on Saturday night.
The Galácticos' 2025–26 campaign hit rock bottom merely two weeks into the calendar year. The team found themselves four points behind Barcelona in the league standings, suffered defeat to their eternal rivals in the Spanish Super Cup final, and parted ways with Xabi Alonso after only 34 matches in charge.
The Álvaro Arbeloa period then began catastrophically, as lower-division side Albacete eliminated Real Madrid from the Copa del Rey in the round of 16. However, the stars in white recovered from this embarrassing exit and secured victories in their subsequent three fixtures under their fresh leadership.
Benefiting from Barcelona's 2–1 loss to Real Sociedad the previous weekend, Los Blancos now sit at the summit ahead of the Catalans' encounter with Real Oviedo. Even should the reigning Spanish champions secure all three points and reclaim the top spot, just one point would separate these two Spanish powerhouses.
Here's how Opta's analytical system forecasts the La Liga championship battle will unfold.
Supercomputer's Predicted 2025–26 La Liga Table
Supercomputer's Predicted 2025–26 La Liga Table
La Liga Title Race
La Liga Title Race
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Barcelona | 49* | 88.48 | 62.94 |
2. | Real Madrid | 51 | 85.82 | 34.99 |
3. | Atlético Madrid | 41* | 75.88 | 1.98 |
4. | Villarreal | 41 | 70.07 | 0.09 |
*Have a game in hand.
Despite Real Madrid's recent climb in the table, Barcelona remain Opta's favored choice to capture the championship. The Blaugrana possess a 62.94% probability of retaining their Spanish title and securing their 29th La Liga triumph by May.
Flick's squad is anticipated to conclude with 88.48 points, approximately four ahead of Real Madrid's projected 85.82. If Barcelona truly finishes the campaign with 88 points, they would equal their championship-winning total from the previous season.
Los Blancos, conversely, are predicted to earn just one additional point compared to the 84 they accumulated in 2024–25. Arbeloa's team may presently lead the table, but the analytical model assigns them roughly a 35% probability of hoisting the La Liga trophy when the season concludes.
However, four months remain in the 2025–26 campaign, providing the 15-time European champions ample opportunity to improve their chances. The outlook appears less promising for third-positioned Atlético Madrid and fourth-placed Villarreal.
These two sides have a collective 2.7% likelihood of capturing La Liga honors. As has occurred numerous times previously, the battle for the Spanish championship appears destined to be a two-team contest.
Kylian Mbappé Chasing First Major Trophy at Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappé Chasing First Major Trophy at Real Madrid
Should Real Madrid wish to reverse their fortunes and unseat Barcelona, they must consistently maximize Kylian Mbappé's potential, something new manager Arbeloa is already accomplishing early in his reign. The striker has netted six times across his three appearances under the Spanish tactician, guiding the team to triumphs over Levante, Monaco and Villarreal.
Mbappé has now tallied 87 goals in 87 matches for Real Madrid since joining the Spanish capital prior to the 2024–25 season. Despite all his personal excellence, the France captain has still not claimed a major honor while wearing the white jersey.
Arbeloa confronts a comparable situation since assuming control of his former team. Two weeks prior, the coach had never even overseen a top-division club, much less guided one to championship glory.
The encouraging aspect for both the club's marquee player and the new tactician is that numerous players in white understand what winning requires, not just La Liga but also the Champions League. Vinicius Junior, specifically, has demonstrated his ability to elevate Real Madrid to remarkable levels, and the No. 7 appears to be returning to peak form under Arbeloa's guidance.