AI Supercomputer Reveals Shocking Rankings of Every Premier League Team's 2025-26 Season Start
If the Club World Cup fails to capture your interest and even Florian Plettenberg isn't breaking transfer stories for your club, then you were likely eagerly anticipating the Premier League fixture announcement.
The complete schedule of 380 matches for the 2025–26 season was unveiled on Wednesday morning, and despite those who claimed indifference to the release—"it's just everyone facing everyone, right?"—there's undeniable significance in fixture scheduling. The sequence of your team's matches carries real importance.
When examining the fixture list, we naturally gravitate toward the opening and closing periods before identifying key matchups throughout the middle. You likely noticed with surprise that no Boxing Day fixtures are currently on the calendar.
The season opener generates the most excitement, as clubs aim for strong beginnings to establish momentum for the entire campaign. To satisfy this curiosity, Opta has evaluated the challenge level of each Premier League team's initial five matches for the upcoming season.
Let's examine which clubs face the toughest early schedule.
Supercomputer's Opening Five Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Ranking
Rank | Team | First five fixtures | Opta's average opponent rating |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Man Utd | Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Burnley (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (H) | 94.6 |
2. | Arsenal | Man Utd (A), Leeds (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Man City (H) | 94.0 |
3. | Bournemouth | Liverpool (A), Wolves (H), Tottenham (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (H) | 93.7 |
4. | Everton | Leeds (A) | 93.4 |
5. | Liverpool | Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (H) | 93.3 |
6. | Wolves | Man City (H), Bournemouth (A), Everton (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (A) | 93.1 |
7. | Newcastle | Aston Villa (A), Liverpool (H), Leeds (A) Wolverhampton (H), Bournemouth (A) | 93.1 |
8. | Leeds | Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle (H), Fulham (A), Wolves (H) | 93.0 |
9. | Nottingham Forest | Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), West Ham (H), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (A) | 92.7 |
10. | Man City | Wolves (A), Tottenham (H), Brighton (A), Man Utd (H), Arsenal (A) | 92.7 |
11. | Brighton | Fulham (H), Everton (A), Man City (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham (H) | 92.4 |
12. | Spurs | Burnley (H), Man City (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) Brighton (A) | 92.4 |
13. | Fulham | Brighton (A), Man Utd (H), Chelsea (A), Leeds (H), Brentford (A) | 92.3 |
14. | Sunderland | West Ham (H), Burnley (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Aston Villa (H) | 91.9 |
15. | Chelsea | Crystal Palace (H), West Ham (A), Fulham (H), Brentford (A), Man Utd (H) | 91.3 |
16. | Brentford | Nottingham Forest (A), Aston Villa (H), Sunderland (H), Chelsea (A), Fulham (H) | 91.2 |
17. | Burnley | Tottenham (A), Sunderland (H), Man Utd (A), Liverpool (H), Nottingham Forest (H) | 91.1 |
18. | West Ham | Sunderland (A), Chelsea (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Tottenham (H), Crystal Palace (H) | 91.0 |
19. | Crystal Palace | Chelsea (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Aston Villa (A), Sunderland (H), West Ham (A) | 90.9 |
20. | Aston Villa | Newcastle (H), Brentford (A), Crystal Palace (H), Everton (H), Sunderland (A) | 90.9 |
Opta utilized their Power Rankings system to assess fixture difficulty. These Rankings evaluate thousands of global teams on a scale from zero (weakest) to 100 (strongest). All Premier League clubs therefore score near the upper end of this scale, with Opta calculating the average scores of each team's first five opponents to determine an overall rating.
Consequently, it seems that home or away venue doesn't influence these average ratings or the final rankings.
Nevertheless, it's clear that Manchester United—historically the most successful opening-day team in Premier League history—and Arsenal have received challenging early schedules. Both clubs meet at Old Trafford on the opening weekend before encountering two additional 'Big Six' rivals within their first five matches.
United travel to local rivals Manchester City on matchday four before welcoming Chelsea, while Arsenal visit the defending champions and later host Manchester City. The Gunners also face Nottingham Forest, who significantly surpassed expectations in the previous campaign.
These are two of three teams confronting three 'Big Six' opponents in their opening quintet, with newly promoted Burnley completing the trio. Interestingly, Opta considers the Clarets' start as the fourth 'easiest' in the league despite away fixtures against Tottenham and Man Utd, plus a home match versus Liverpool. It's noteworthy that Spurs and United's Opta ratings would be relatively modest given their disappointing domestic campaigns in 2024–25. Both clubs are anticipated to improve next season.
Bournemouth's opening five fixtures rightfully rank as the third most challenging, facing Spurs and Newcastle at home while traveling to Liverpool and Brighton. The champions begin the season with Friday Night Football against the Cherries, who will likely look considerably different from 2024–25, before visiting St. James' Park and hosting Arsenal in their opening quintet. The season's first Merseyside derby is scheduled for matchday five at Anfield.
On the other end of the scale, Aston Villa apparently face the gentlest opening sequence. They start with a challenging match against Newcastle at Villa Park, but should expect to collect near-maximum points from their subsequent four fixtures against Brentford (A), Crystal Palace (H), Everton (H) and Sunderland (A).
The Bees don't seem as formidable heading into the new campaign after losing Thomas Frank, whose Tottenham side host Burnley three days following the UEFA Super Cup final. Spurs, ranked with the 12th most difficult opening fixtures, travel to Man City, West Ham and Brighton.