AI Supercomputer Reveals Stunning 2025 Club World Cup Champion Prediction Following Major Round of 16 Upsets
When pre-tournament forecasts suggested European clubs would dominate the FIFA Club World Cup, Monday's results changed everything.
FIFA president Gianni Infantino had reason to celebrate, as the architect of this redesigned summer competition. The Swiss-Italian executive declared that a "NEW ERA OF CLUB FOOTBALL has definitely started" via his Instagram account, praising Al Hilal's remarkable triumph over Manchester City.
Earlier that same day, Fluminense caused an upset by defeating UEFA Champions League runners-up Inter to secure their place in the quarterfinals.
While having a varied group of quarterfinalists certainly benefits the tournament, five UEFA representatives remain in contention and are still considered the leading contenders for the title.
Below is how Opta's analytical system evaluates each team's probability of claiming the Club World Cup following the round of 16 matches.
Opta's Analytical System Club World Cup Forecasts Following Round of 16
Team | Odds of Reaching Semifinals (%) | Odds of Reaching Final (%) | Odds of Winning Club World Cup (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
Chelsea | 74.8 | 57.9 | 26.8 |
PSG | 57.7 | 35.6 | 24.9 |
Real Madrid | 59.7 | 27.1 | 16.9 |
Bayern Munich | 42.3 | 23.3 | 14.8 |
Borussia Dortmund | 40.3 | 14 | 7.6 |
Al Hilal | 59.8 | 18.9 | 4.3 |
Palmeiras | 25.2 | 13.7 | 3 |
Fluminense | 40.2 | 9.5 | 1.5 |
Chelsea began the competition as Opta's sixth most probable champion, but the analytical system now considers them the frontrunners.
Enzo Maresca's squad placed second in Group D and needed additional time to overcome Benfica in the round of 16. However, they find themselves on the more favorable side of the elimination bracket and will no longer need to confront Manchester City to reach the final.
They hold strong odds against Palmeiras in the quarterfinals, and would subsequently face either Al Hilal or Fluminense in the semifinals. Despite their surprising knockout stage victories, the Saudi champions (4.3%) and Brazilian club (1.5%) possess limited chances of capturing the tournament. Opta strongly anticipates a European team celebrating at MetLife on July 13.
Chelsea are projected to meet Champions League victors Paris Saint-Germain in the most probable final scenario, though PSG faces a challenging path to the championship match. Following their comfortable victory over Inter Miami, Luis Enrique's squad confronts Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals before potentially meeting either Real Madrid or Borussia Dortmund in the semifinals.
Opta assigns PSG a 57.7% probability of defeating Bayern and a 35.6% likelihood of winning their semifinal. Their championship odds are rated slightly below Chelsea's (26.8%) at 24.9%.
Xabi Alonso's Real Madrid have gained momentum throughout the tournament, cruising past Juventus in the round of 16. They rank as the third most likely team to reach the semifinals (59.7%) after Chelsea and Al Hilal, as they meet Borussia Dortmund in a rematch of the 2024 Champions League final. Los Blancos are the third favorites to claim the overall trophy (16.9%).