AI Supercomputer Shakes Up Champions League Predictions as Round of 16 Reaches Boiling Point

The second legs of the 2025–26 Champions League round of 16 matchups will commence on Tuesday.

Major clubs including Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich appear to have secured strong positions for the quarterfinals following commanding performances in the first leg, while Arsenal, Liverpool and Barcelona must still complete their tasks to advance to the final eight.

Following this weekend's league matches, the Opta supercomputer has been analyzing each remaining club's probability of success, revealing a new frontrunner at the summit.

Supercomputer Forecasts Champions League Victor

Supercomputer Forecasts Champions League Victor

Following the conclusion of the first legs, Bayern Munich emerged as the tournament favorites. However, Arsenal now holds that distinction.

The North London club, the sole team to maintain a perfect record during the league phase, had topped the predictions for several weeks before settling for a 1–1 stalemate at Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern, conversely, jumped ahead following their devastating 6–1 victory over Atalanta.

The positions have now switched, with Arsenal reclaiming the top spot in the forecasted rankings.

Bayern have merely dropped to second place and remain viewed as one of just two clubs with substantial winning prospects. Their 20.55% probability is almost twice that of the third-placed team, which is now Paris Saint-Germain.

The Parisian club, maintaining a 5–2 lead over Chelsea, has moved past Barcelona, whose likelihood has decreased slightly but remains above 10%.

At 8.66%, Real Madrid's winning probability has actually improved marginally, keeping them well ahead of cross-town rivals Atlético Madrid. Both Madrid clubs possess three-goal cushions to defend against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur, respectively.

Liverpool and Newcastle United maintain their positions in the standings, but what was previously a trio of English clubs has been disrupted by everyone's beloved underdogs. Bodø/Glimt's chances may have decreased, but Man City have plummeted further and now possess just a 1.74% probability of claiming another European title.

Bayer Leverkusen have escaped the sub-one percent category, now enjoying 1.50% odds and leaving five teams competing for minimal chances at the table's bottom.

Among those five, Galatasaray remain the only club actually holding a lead entering the return fixtures. The Turkish powerhouse defeated Liverpool 1–0 at home but are clearly not expected to complete the task at Anfield.

Chelsea are assigned merely a 0.49% victory chance, experiencing a decline in their prospects following the weekend loss to Newcastle, while Tottenham have actually risen from 0.05% to the elevated level of 0.07% after displaying a spark of hope against Liverpool.

The sole team maintaining identical odds from the previous week is Atalanta. Stranded in final position, the Italian outfit are still considered completely unrealistic winners.

Champions League Round of 16 Fixtures

Champions League Round of 16 Fixtures