Arsenal's Late-Season Collapse Gifts Manchester City Golden Opportunity for Premier League Glory

Wednesday evening's surprising 2–2 stalemate between Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers triggered jubilant scenes among Manchester City supporters.

Tom Edozie's stoppage-time equalizer in the 94th minute means Manchester City have regained control of their Premier League championship destiny for the first time in months. Pep Guardiola is now aware that his squad will claim the title if they secure victories in all their remaining matches, including a crucial clash with Arsenal in April.

Past evidence demonstrates City's strength in the final stretch, whereas Arsenal have been criticized for mental fragility and struggling to handle title race pressure.

Points Won in Final 12 Premier League Games

Points Won in Final 12 Premier League Games

Mikel Arteta's time at Arsenal, which started in 2019, has been marked by significant late-season collapses.

Throughout three of the past four campaigns, Arsenal have suffered dramatic declines compared to their rivals. Even during their strongest season in 2023–24, they fell short against a City team whose relentless pursuit of success typically intensifies during this stage of the campaign.

Starting with the 2021–22 season, Arsenal managed only six victories in their last 12 matches, losing the remaining six and ultimately falling short of Champions League qualification by just two points. Tottenham Hotspur, who secured fourth place, defeated the Gunners 3–0 with three matches remaining.

City, however, were engaged in a title battle with Liverpool, whose 10-match winning streak forced Guardiola's team to maintain near-perfection to secure glory. Collecting 30 points from 36 available was sufficient to finish one point ahead at the summit.

Arsenal's first genuine title challenge under Arteta came in 2022–23. Following 29 matches, the Gunners held an eight-point lead over City, marking the beginning of "bottling" allegations. Damaging draws against West Ham United and relegation-threatened Southampton preceded a 4–1 defeat to Guardiola's side, who earned 10 additional points over the final 12 games to secure the championship.

A year later, Arsenal made their strongest attempt to dispel the criticism. Earning 31 points from 36 possible represented the type of form that had previously delivered titles to City, but Guardiola's team managed to exceed that standard. With 32 points, including one from a 0–0 stalemate with Arsenal, City claimed the 2023–24 championship.

Regrettably for Arsenal, those recurring problems resurfaced during the 2024–25 season. The key difference this time was Liverpool's position above them in the title standings.

City had entered the decline that extended into the present campaign and had abandoned hopes of overtaking Liverpool, instead concentrating on securing their top-four position. Accumulating 27 points from their final 12 matches was relatively disappointing, yet still exceeded Arsenal's total by six points.

Liverpool, meanwhile, collected 23 points despite clearly losing motivation after their title victory was confirmed—Arne Slot's team failed to win any of their final four matches but still achieved a 2–2 draw with Arsenal.

Pressure Rears Its Ugly Head

Pressure Rears Its Ugly Head

As frequently theorized, City appear immune to cracking under mounting pressure. Guardiola possesses a roster filled with championship veterans, including himself, who consider trophy collection a professional obligation.

Arsenal cannot claim such pedigree, and the Gunners are buckling under the increasing burden of mockery and condemnation with each successive season. Despite maintaining a favorable position, Arsenal allowed their frustrations to explode against Wolves in a post-match altercation triggered by Gabriel Jesus's unnecessarily heated reaction to Yerson Mosquera's celebrations.

Both clubs enter the final 12 matches of the season in identical circumstances. Due to April's encounter between them, both Arsenal and City control their own fates, understanding that 12 victories would ensure success regardless of their opponent's performance.

In truth, Arsenal's situation remains unchanged, as they continue leading comfortably with the additional advantage of being able to draw their match against City—a luxury not afforded to Guardiola's team.

City hold the historical advantage, though. Guardiola excels in these crucial moments, and Arteta now confronts another chance to demonstrate he belongs among the elite alongside his former mentor.