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The Canada men's national team has had June 12 in Toronto marked on their schedule for months, yet still doesn't know who they'll face in their opening World Cup match.
Canada will wrap up World Cup Group B play in Vancouver against Qatar and Switzerland, but must wait until late March to learn their first opponent, as Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, and Bosnia and Herzegovina battle for the remaining spot in the final tournament.
The UEFA playoffs feature two rounds, beginning with semifinal matchups of Italy vs. Northern Ireland and Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the winners advancing to a single-game decider for the last place in Canada's group this summer.
Here, Sports Illustrated ranks the playoff contenders by their likelihood of qualifying.
UEFA World Cup Playoffs Path A
Semifinal — Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Semifinal — Italy vs. Northern Ireland
4. Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland may draw motivation from their very name. After all, it was North Macedonia that shattered Italy's 2022 World Cup aspirations, just as the Northern Irish now aim to do the same.
Manager Michael O'Neill acknowledges that Italy carries "all the pressure," though he's under no illusions about how "difficult to win" the match will be in Bergamo, an unconventional venue for such a pivotal Italian fixture.
The nation hasn't featured in a major international tournament in a decade, with Euro 2016—also under O'Neill's guidance—marking their last appearance on the big stage. That squad was packed with seasoned talent, including Steven Davis, Jonny Evans, and Aaron Hughes.
Comparing that generation to the current one, featuring Southampton's Shea Charles, Sunderland's Trai Hume, and Liverpool's Conor Bradley, it's clear that toppling Italy—and then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina—represents a monumental yet not entirely unrealistic challenge.
3. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina were just 13 minutes away from securing World Cup qualification in the final group stage round, holding a one-goal lead over Austria before a late equalizer made it 1–1 and pushed them into the playoffs.
They now face the daunting task of traveling to Wales for a hostile Cardiff atmosphere, followed by a potential clash with a determined Italian side with a World Cup place at stake. Even so, a return to football's grandest stage for the first time since 2014—their sole previous appearance—isn't out of the question.
Despite being 40 and in the latter stages of his career, former Premier League striker Edin Džeko, now playing for FC Schalke 04, is expected to lead the attack. He has contributed six goals and three assists in just 538 minutes in the 2. Bundesliga this season, while his potential strike partner Haris Tabakovic has netted 11 goals in the German top flight with Borussia Mönchengladbach. Defensively, Dennis Hadzikadunic and Tarik Muharemović form a Serie A-based central defensive partnership.
Ranked 71st globally, Bosnia and Herzegovina enter the bracket in decent form following a 1–1 draw with Austria to close their group stage and victories over Malta and Romania. Nevertheless, the challenge of facing Wales away and potentially Italy at home may prove too steep.
2. Wales
Wales has a World Cup kit, and it's a fine one at that. They're hoping to actually wear it at this summer's tournament. To get there, they must first eliminate Bosnia and Herzegovina before potentially hosting a World Cup qualifying final in Cardiff against a likely Italian opponent.
While Wales are no longer the force they were with Gareth Bale, who guided them to the 2022 World Cup, they remain a competitive side under manager Craig Bellamy.
Spearheaded by Crystal Palace's Brennan Johnson, Fulham's Harry Wilson, and Nottingham Forest's Neco Williams, they finished as runners-up in their qualifying group, just two points adrift of Belgium. Along the way, they defeated Kazakhstan, North Macedonia, and Liechtenstein, but suffered losses to Belgium by scores of 4–3 and 4–2, which pushed them into the playoff bracket.
Across four playoff ties in the last two major competitions, Wales have beaten Austria, Ukraine, and Finland in Cardiff, with only a penalty shootout defeat to Poland during Euro 2024 qualifying standing as a recent high-pressure stumble. They enter this bracket in good shape, having won back-to-back games against Liechtenstein and North Macedonia, along with a 1–0 defeat to Canada in September—the very team they would meet at the World Cup if they qualify.
1. Italy
There was a time when Italy couldn't imagine being absent from the World Cup. Now, if the playoffs don't break their way next week, an entire generation could pass without seeing the Azzurri at the tournament—even with the expanded 48-team format.
The haunting memories of defeats to Sweden that ended their 2018 hopes and to North Macedonia that crushed their 2022 dreams will weigh heavily as the squad takes the pitch for the semifinal against Northern Ireland, chasing their first World Cup appearance since 2014.
Italy's squad boasts unrivaled talent, matched by their current form. Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori and Newcastle's Sandro Tonali have been consistently impressive in the Premier League, while Inter Milan's Nicolò Barella has featured in nearly every minute of the Serie A campaign. Gianluigi Donnarumma, meanwhile, continues to be a world-class goalkeeper despite Manchester City's recent struggles.
Beyond individual quality, the group has won five of their first six matches since manager Gennaro Gattuso replaced Luciano Spalletti. Their sole defeat came against Norway, which pushed them into the playoffs instead of direct qualification.
Anything short of qualifying would be a catastrophic outcome for Italy, particularly given that their World Cup opener would be against the host nation in Toronto—home to Canada's largest Italian community.