Carabao Cup Semi-Finals Kick Off: Who Will Seize the Early Advantage?

Chelsea's commanding 3–1 triumph over Cardiff City in the quarter-final stage eliminated the final remnants of a Carabao Cup underdog story, leaving us with three members of the prestigious "Big Six" alongside the current title holders.

Newcastle United broke their seven-decade drought for a major domestic championship by defeating Liverpool 2–1 in the previous season's finale, and consecutive wins against Premier League clubs mean they remain contenders to defend their title.

Unlike earlier Carabao Cup matches that are swift single encounters going directly to spot-kicks if tied after regulation time, the semi-final rounds are more extended affairs. These matchups will again feature home-and-away legs, with each winner earning a Wembley appearance in mid-March, where the season's first major English football prize will be contested.

Below are Sports Illustrated's forecasts for the opening legs of the 2025–26 Carabao Cup semi-final ties.

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City

An Alexander Isak strike helped Newcastle overcome Pep Guardiola's Manchester City in this tournament's third round two campaigns back, and the Magpies have consistently caused problems for the regular Premier League title contenders at St. James' Park.

Last November, Harvey Barnes's brilliance propelled Eddie Howe's squad to a 2–1 success against the Citizens, and they enter their semi-final opener in outstanding form.

Three consecutive Premier League victories were followed by a penalty shootout success over Bournemouth in the FA Cup third round this past weekend, though their struggles at the Etihad Stadium mean they need an early advantage to optimize their prospects of reaching Wembley again.

City previously ruled the Carabao Cup, capturing five of six editions between 2016–21, but they haven't appeared in the final since their latest success half a decade ago.

With Arsenal maintaining a comfortable lead atop the Premier League table and Guardiola's team facing significant challenges in European competition, this tournament offers their strongest opportunity for silverware this campaign.

Prediction: Newcastle 2–2 Man City

Chelsea vs. Arsenal

Chelsea vs. Arsenal

When Chelsea fought valiantly despite being reduced to ten men against the league leaders in late November, few anticipated a new face would occupy the home technical area at Stamford Bridge for their next encounter with the Gunners.

Enzo Maresca's surprising exit places BlueCo's favored candidate, Liam Rosenior, in charge, and the former Strasbourg boss has an opportunity to quickly earn the trust of a skeptical supporter base when the Blues meet Arsenal across two matches.

Rosenior's tenure began with a 5–1 victory at Charlton Athletic on Saturday evening, but Mikel Arteta's Arsenal present a massive increase in difficulty. The Gunners have fallen at this tournament stage repeatedly under the Spanish manager's leadership, and many fans are eager for the club to break their six-year trophy drought before this season's crucial period begins.

Thomas Tuchel was managing, and Romelu Lukaku was dominating Pablo Marí in Arsenal's defense when Chelsea last defeated the Gunners.

Prediction: Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal

Prediction: Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal

Carabao Cup Semifinal First Leg Predictions

Carabao Cup Semifinal First Leg Predictions