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As holders of the 2024–25 Europa Conference League trophy and the 2025 Club World Cup title, Chelsea were widely tipped to push on and reach new heights this campaign—particularly following yet another costly summer spending spree in the transfer market.
Instead, the Blues head into the Premier League's final matchday sitting eighth, below both Brighton & Hove Albion and Bournemouth, with a genuine risk that they could miss out on European football altogether next season.
A route into Europe still exists, but it is far from straightforward—particularly with a season-ending away fixture at the Stadium of Light against fellow European hopefuls Sunderland standing in their way.
Here's exactly what Chelsea need to happen on the final day to clinch a European berth for next season.
How Chelsea Can Qualify for Europe on Final Day of Premier League Season
Chelsea's hopes of Champions League football are already gone, though they remain in the hunt for either Europa League or Conference League qualification.
Fair warning—the permutations are somewhat intricate.
With 52 points on the board, Chelsea are out of contention for sixth-placed Bournemouth and are realistically fighting for a finish anywhere between seventh and 10th. Although Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham sit just three points adrift in 11th, 12th and 13th, they would need a dramatic swing in goal difference to realistically threaten the Blues.
That means Chelsea's direct rivals are Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford and Sunderland. With just two points splitting all four clubs heading into the final round of fixtures, seventh place earns Europa League football while eighth secures a Conference League spot.
Premier League Table Ahead of Season Finale
Position | Team | Goal Difference | Points | UEFA Qualification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
7. | Brighton & Hove Albion | +9 | 53 | Europa League |
8. | Chelsea | +7 | 52 | Conference League |
9. | Brentford | +3 | 52 | — |
10. | Sunderland | -7 | 51 | — |
To claim a Europa League place, Chelsea must outperform Brighton on Sunday.
If Brighton—who hold a one-point lead—defeat Manchester United, they will lock up seventh place and Europa League football at minimum, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
Chelsea Beat Sunderland
Should Chelsea sign off the season with a victory over Sunderland, they would still need Brighton to slip up in order to leapfrog the Seagulls and put themselves in a strong position for Europa League football.
Provided Brentford do not overturn Chelsea's superior goal difference by thrashing Liverpool by a margin of four or more goals beyond the Blues' winning margin, Calum McFarlane's side would wrap up the campaign in seventh.
Chelsea Draw With Sunderland
If the match at the Stadium of Light ends level, seventh place remains a possibility—but only if Brentford fail to win and Brighton suffer a defeat of at least two goals to Manchester United.
A Brighton point combined with a Brentford failure to win would leave Chelsea in eighth. However, should Brentford claim all three points at Anfield, they would leapfrog Chelsea entirely, pushing the Blues down to ninth.
Chelsea Beaten by Sunderland
A defeat at Sunderland would effectively end Chelsea's European ambitions, with both Brighton and Sunderland guaranteed to finish ahead of them.
Put simply: Chelsea must win and hope Brighton falter, while also trusting that Brentford do not pull off an improbable hammering of Liverpool. Even if Brighton do win, Chelsea can still secure the Conference League spot with a victory—as long as Brentford don't run riot at Anfield.
Realistically, a win should be sufficient to guarantee some form of European football next season—but as the Premier League has shown time and again, nothing is ever truly certain.