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FIFA, the global governing body of soccer, is reportedly pushing to fast-track a new rule that would limit penalty shootouts to a single coin toss at this summer's World Cup.
Penalty shootouts have been a fixture of World Cup knockout rounds for the last four decades, providing a brutal yet gripping method of determining a winner when a match remains tied after 90 minutes of regulation and an additional 30 minutes of extra time.
Before this nerve-shredding process gets underway, the captains of both sides gather around the referee to settle two questions: which team shoots first, and from which end of the pitch the penalties will be taken.
Under existing rules, the referee conducts two separate coin flips to determine each factor. This creates a very real possibility—exactly one-in-four—that a team could lose both tosses and find itself at a double disadvantage.
FIFA has proposed reducing this to a single flip of fate, with captains given the choice of determining the shooting order or the end from which kicks are taken—but not both, according to The Times. So if Team A wins the toss and opts to shoot first, Team B automatically earns the right to choose which set of supporters will be closest to the action.
There has been no shortage of notable rule changes this summer, all of which were announced weeks or months ahead of a tournament that has been in the works since the U.S., Mexico, and Canada were awarded the joint hosting rights for the World Cup in 2018. Why FIFA has suddenly grown concerned about the fairness of penalty shootouts during the group stage remains unclear.
Nevertheless, the governing authorities can still push this proposed change through if IFAB—soccer's official rule-making body—approves the request before Sunday's opening knockout fixture.
Does It Matter Who Takes the First Penalty in a Shootout?
Penalty shootouts have been the subject of extensive statistical scrutiny for years. They represent a real-world, high-stakes illustration of game theory. Numerous studies have examined the finer details of this compelling athletic scenario, drawing conclusions on everything from the order of penalty takers to the number of seconds elapsed before the ball is struck.
Some of this research has entered the mainstream. Recent major tournaments have seen commentators confidently telling viewers that the team shooting first holds a meaningful advantage in winning the shootout. This is an easy notion to accept for those who can relate to the idea that watching the opposition convert their opening kick places unbearable psychological pressure on the next taker.
However, subsequent studies have emerged claiming the exact opposite—or something somewhere in between.
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According to David Pipke's paper published last year in the Journal of Economic Psychology, the "lack of consensus" among these various studies is "likely due to limited sample sizes." In an effort to cut through the conflicting findings, Pipke analyzed 7,000 shootouts and 74,000 kicks, concluding that there is "no evidence" that the team taking the first penalty enjoys a greater chance of winning.