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The 2026 MLS season has crossed its midpoint, and most clubs are now eyeing the MLS Cup playoffs and the Supporters' Shield, with just nine sides still competing in other tournaments. The players, meanwhile, may have their attention fixed on individual milestones.
While the summer window has seen a wave of high-profile attacking talent arrive in the league—including Robert Lewandowski, Antoine Griezmann and Alexis Sánchez—none are expected to challenge for end-of-season awards, apart from possibly the MLS Newcomer of the Year.
Regardless of how many goals the new arrivals manage to score, none are likely to make a dent in the hotly contested MLS Golden Boot race—which boasts 17 players with at least 10 goals, headlined by New York City FC's Nicolás Fernández Mercau and FC Dallas's Petar Musa, both sitting on 13.
Here, Sports Illustrated examines and ranks the five players most likely to claim the Golden Boot by Decision Day, scheduled for Nov. 7.
5. Evander
Evander may be the only player in MLS capable of producing jaw-dropping moments on a consistent basis, aside from Lionel Messi.
This campaign, he has netted 11 goals across 17 appearances and has already propelled FC Cincinnati to a strong stretch following the World Cup break, contributing two goals and four assists in three regular-season outings since the summer resumption. While he shares the 11-goal mark with teammate Kévin Denkey, Evander's varied goalscoring repertoire sets him apart, combining precise long-range strikes, top-tier finishing and exceptional set-piece ability.
The Brazilian has been the standout performer in MLS outside of Messi over the past three seasons and would have claimed an MVP Award had it not been for his South American rival. Though that honor has eluded him and likely will again, the Golden Boot could be a realistic target this year.
4. Nicolás Fernández Mercau
There is a chance that New York City FC could look to part ways with Nicolás Fernández Mercau while he is at the peak of his abilities and riding a remarkable run of form this summer. Should he remain in MLS, however, he is well-positioned to challenge for the Golden Boot, already sitting atop the scoring charts with 13 goals in 18 matches. He has reached that tally even without a full supporting cast, given the absences of Alonso Martínez and Maxi Moralez, the club's other key attacking threats.
A large portion of NYCFC's offensive output depends on Fernández Mercau to both create and convert, meaning opportunities will keep coming his way as the season progresses. Martínez, however, is anticipated to return from his ACL injury at some point in the second half, which could disrupt Fernández Mercau's rhythm and force a tactical readjustment.
3. Petar Musa
Petar Musa is no longer flying under the radar in MLS, having represented Croatia at the 2026 World Cup and finding the net in the group stage against England.
His outstanding club form for FC Dallas earned him that international call-up and makes him a strong contender for the Golden Boot this season. He already has 13 goals in just 16 games and has built a productive partnership with Logan Farrington, as the pair drive Dallas's push in the Western Conference.
2. Sam Surridge
Sam Surridge battled through an injury earlier this campaign, causing him to sit out six of Nashville SC's 18 matches so far. Despite that, he has still managed 11 goals, leaving him just two behind the Golden Boot co-leaders. Among players who have reached double figures, none have done so in fewer appearances than Surridge—a testament to his clinical edge.
Lining up alongside in-form teammates like Hany Mukhtar and Cristian Espinoza, Surridge has been a prolific scorer over the past two seasons and wrapped up the 2025 campaign with an impressive 24 goals in 34 games. Now, with a stronger squad around him, the B.J. Callaghan system continuing to bring out his best and his elite finishing ability, the stage is set.
The Coyotes no longer have to navigate lengthy breaks or additional competitions and can channel their energy into the MLS schedule, something that should bring out the best in their top performers, Surridge included.
1. Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi is the clear frontrunner to claim the 2026 Golden Boot, having secured the award last year with the greatest combined goals and assists season in MLS history. Already boasting 12 goals in 15 games heading into the first weekend following the Leagues Cup, he is operating on a different level from everyone else.
With no Leagues Cup elimination rounds to navigate, Miami will be entirely focused on capturing the Supporters' Shield and retaining the MLS Cup. Messi will be central to whatever success they achieve.