Inter Miami's Blueprint to Shock PSG: The Underdog's Path to Club World Cup Glory
The challenge ahead is formidable, yet achievable.
Lionel Messi faces an unprecedented situation in his illustrious career as he prepares to battle against a previous employer, leading the outsiders Inter Miami CF in their clash with UEFA Champions League victors Paris Saint-Germain this Sunday during the Round of 16 stage of the FIFA Club World Cup.
Despite Miami already creating headlines by becoming the inaugural MLS franchise to defeat a European opponent in official competition through their 2-1 triumph over FC Porto in the group phase, confronting the continental champions presents a completely different challenge.
Based on Opta's analytical system, PSG holds an 80% probability of securing victory, which might actually underestimate their chances considering the substantial difference between a mediocre MLS club and a global powerhouse.
Though the odds appear stacked against them, Sports Illustrated examines three crucial elements Miami must execute perfectly to achieve a historic upset.
Botafogo's Blueprint and Clinical Finishing
During MLS competition, Inter Miami typically dominates possession. However, they've adapted their approach when facing superior opposition throughout the Club World Cup, lessons that will prove essential against PSG.
Fortunately for Mascherano, Botafogo demonstrated the formula for defeating PSG during the group phase. The strategy involves two critical components: rapid transitions and converting the limited scoring opportunities that arise.
Even elite teams experience momentary defensive breakdowns, and Miami should anticipate several chances against PSG. But how might these opportunities materialize?
Beyond set-piece situations, Miami has demonstrated their capacity to score through quick counterattacks and precisely timed passes that exploit high defensive lines, a tactical approach PSG has employed at the Club World Cup.
When PSG utilized this strategy against Botafogo, they were exposed by a penetrating pass, a goal that tactically mirrors Tadeo Allende's 16th-minute strike against Palmeiras, as shown in the footage below.
While the Herons won't consistently find such opportunities, it represents a validated method for teams to generate chances without possession during open play. Should they create one or two such moments, clinical finishing becomes paramount, as even a single missed opportunity could eliminate their hopes in this encounter.
Sustained Defensive Discipline
For a squad that endured significant defensive struggles early in the MLS campaign, Inter Miami has discovered their defensive identity.
As they approach the most significant match in franchise history, this defensive solidity will prove crucial in ways few anticipated when they tumbled down the MLS table and exited the Concacaf Champions Cup.
Throughout their three group matches, Miami maintained a stable four-defender formation, assigning players to designated roles, contrasting their earlier MLS season approach.
Predominantly featuring Tomas Avilés and Maxi Falcon as central defenders, Miami adopted a deeper defensive posture than previously employed, providing more time on possession and creating opportunities for wide players and fullbacks – notably Noah Allen and Marcelo Weigandt – to initiate attacks from the flanks.
Simultaneously, allowing play to develop deeper in their territory provides additional time for an exceptional playmaker like Sergio Busquets to orchestrate and create, while his midfield colleague assumes greater defensive responsibilities.
This tactical evolution has transformed Miami into a more defensively conscious and reliable team, while enabling their offensive play to become less hurried, benefiting every player on the field, especially those in the latter stages of their careers.
Though Mascherano remains in the formative phase of his managerial journey, following an unstable beginning with the Herons, he may have developed a system capable of engineering an upset against PSG.
A Classic Lionel Messi Magic Moment
The most obvious path to Inter Miami victory cannot be strategized: A trademark moment of brilliance from Messi.
Though he's no longer the same force at 38 that he was during his prime years, his capacity to manufacture chances from seemingly impossible situations endures, albeit at a slightly reduced pace.
Against FC Porto, he displayed his mastery with a flawless free-kick execution. Throughout the competition, he has positioned himself strategically to either attract defensive attention or deliver passes for teammates like Telasco Segovia, Luis Suárez and Allende to exploit.
Unlike many veterans, Messi's technical ability and first touch remain undiminished. His pace and solo dribbling capabilities may have decreased, but he has evolved to maximize his impact for Miami, culminating in his club-record 50 goals.
Should Miami earn a free kick or he discovers a pocket of space, danger looms. Particularly significant given this marks his first encounter against a former club, with global attention scrutinizing his every action to determine if he retains world-class abilities in his football twilight.