Liverpool's Must-Win Mission: What It Takes to Secure Champions League Glory Against Aston Villa

Few could have predicted at the beginning of the season that Liverpool would be sweating over Champions League qualification with only two games left to play. Yet, that is exactly where they stand.

Despite a top-five Premier League finish being sufficient to earn a spot in the competition, Liverpool have still not locked it down. Statistical analysts Opta give the Reds a 96.8% probability of securing Champions League football, but anxiety will persist until the numbers make it official.

A trip to Aston Villa and a home clash with Brentford are all that remain of the club's disappointing 2025–26 campaign, with Arne Slot and his squad eager to cement their top-five status before a final-day encounter with the Bees at Anfield.

Here's what Liverpool need to do to book their place in Europe's premier club competition this Friday against Villa.

How Liverpool Can Qualify for Champions League

The task is straightforward for Liverpool: secure a win at Villa Park to guarantee Champions League football. Just three points from their final two fixtures is all they need, meaning a victory on Friday evening would put them beyond the reach of rivals Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion.

Villa are equally aware that a win would seal their own Champions League spot, with Unai Emery's outfit currently level with Liverpool on points but behind on goal difference. They will be fiercely motivated in their last home fixture of the season, even if attention may drift toward next Wednesday's Europa League final against Freiburg — a win there would also hand Villa a Champions League berth.

A draw may also be sufficient for Liverpool. A shared result would bring them to 60 points, five ahead of Bournemouth and seven clear of Brighton, having played one game more. Should Bournemouth then fail to beat Manchester City at home next Tuesday, Liverpool's advantage would be insurmountable.

Even a loss could still see Liverpool confirmed before the final day, though they would depend on results going their way elsewhere. A defeat at Villa Park would require Brighton to drop points against Leeds United on Sunday, and Bournemouth to then fall to Man City.

Should Brighton win this weekend, Bournemouth avoid defeat against Man City, and Liverpool lose at Villa, then Slot's men would have to wait until the final day to seal qualification. The Reds would still hold their fate in their own hands, needing a win over Brentford.

The most points Liverpool can accumulate is 65. Even back-to-back wins against Aston Villa and Brentford would leave them 19 points short of their Premier League-winning total from last season.

Premier League Table in Race for Champions League Qualification