Man City Faces Devastating Consequences as Expert Predicts 'Logical' Punishment for 115 Premier League Charges
Football financial analyst Kieran Maguire has suggested that Manchester City might encounter an extraordinary punishment of a 60-point penalty if found guilty of the most severe charges in their current legal dispute with the Premier League. However, relegation to a lower tier remains unlikely.
The conflict between City and England's premier division, dubbed the "trial of the century," has been ongoing since the eight-time Premier League winners were charged with over 100 violations in February 2023. City has consistently proclaimed their innocence throughout this period and the following three years.
The inquiry by an independent tribunal concluded in December 2024, followed by 14 months of complete silence. Pep Guardiola's anticipated schedules have consistently failed to materialize, and the Spanish manager has become progressively frustrated when confronted with inquiries about this matter.
Without any official announcement regarding the results, Maguire provided a fascinating perspective on potential consequences during his appearance on The Overlap.
Will Man City Be Found Guilty?
Will Man City Be Found Guilty?
The heart of the Premier League's accusations centers on City allegedly artificially boosting their income to bypass the league's financial fair play regulations across nine seasons (2009–18).
UEFA leveled similar charges against City and imposed a two-year European competition ban in February 2020. City challenged this at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), which overturned the ban and cleared them of "concealing equity funding as sponsorship revenue." Nevertheless, this decision came with the recognition that most alleged violations "were either unproven or statute-barred."
UEFA's regulations include a five-year limitation period, but the Premier League's rules contain no such restriction.
City remains confident they possess a "complete collection of undeniable evidence" to demonstrate their innocence regarding the financial accusations. Nevertheless, Maguire believes it's "quite probable" they will be convicted of "lack of cooperation," which comprises many of the charges.
Erling Haaland appears quite confident. The Scandinavian striker secured his long-term commitment to the club during the investigation after receiving assurances from the club's leadership. "I discussed with the management, and ultimately, I trust them," he stated during last summer's Club World Cup. "It's such a complex situation for me to discuss, because I wasn't directly involved. So I believe the club understands what they're doing. They will resolve it."
Potential Punishments for Man City
Potential Punishments for Man City
If City is found to have intentionally obstructed the Premier League's investigation, Maguire forecasted that "they will likely receive a substantial fine because that's what occurred with UEFA and the penalties there." UEFA originally imposed a €30 million (£26.2 million, $35.4 million) penalty which was subsequently reduced to €10 million following appeal.
The more compelling potential outcomes emerge if City is found guilty of violating actual financial fair play rules.
"The Premier League cannot demote Manchester City to League One or League Two because that's an EFL determination and Manchester City hasn't had any charges validated against them by the EFL," Maguire explained. "Consequently, it must be a points penalty.
"Looking at precedent, we've seen Everton and Nottingham Forest receive six and four-point penalties for single violations spanning a three-year timeframe. The charges against Manchester City span a nine-year period, making it far more extensive.
"The amounts involved remain uncertain but are likely quite substantial. I believe you need to add a zero to what we've witnessed with Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point penalty would be, based on merit to maintain consistency with other rulings, would be very logical."
Everything hinges on the verdict. Should City be proven to have engaged in corporate fraud, Maguire suggests there could be "a total reorganization of the club."
When Will Man City Learn Their Verdict?
When Will Man City Learn Their Verdict?
"I believe we're likely approaching the final stages of receiving a decision," Maguire optimistically forecasted.
"I think part of the difficulty has been that with three very senior individuals on the panel making that final determination. Coordinating those three simultaneously is actually quite challenging. So that's postponed the case. It should be settled within the coming months."
Maguire acknowledged that this timeframe has been suggested previously and remained open to any result.
"If it emerges the week prior to the season's conclusion, it would be disastrous in numerous ways," he continued. "From my understanding, both the Premier League and Manchester City will likely receive 24 hours advance notice of the decision to permit their legal teams to review and examine the details. It could occur on World Cup final day for all we know."