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While Sunday's encounter at the Etihad Stadium won't officially determine the 2025–26 Premier League champion, the importance of this fixture cannot be overstated.
Manchester City and Arsenal have faced this situation before. In 2022–23, a dominant City side exploited a weakened Arsenal in April en route to the title. The next season, Mikel Arteta's squad played for a draw in late March to keep City competitive in what was a three-way title race. They subsequently fell at home to Aston Villa, allowing the reigning champions to claim yet another crown.
Much like 2022–23, Arsenal have led the pack for the majority of the campaign, yet there's a growing feeling that the Gunners are fading at a pivotal moment. While City have rarely resembled a classic Pep Guardiola side this season, they appear to be hitting their stride at precisely the right time.
The diverging momentum of both clubs has led many to back the hosts to further ignite the title race, though Arteta's resolute Arsenal could have a surprise in store for Guardiola's squad, having taken lessons from their Carabao Cup final loss.
Here are four pivotal battles that could determine the outcome of Sunday's title showdown.
1. Goalkeepers Decisive
Many are anticipating a grinding affair at the Etihad, with Arteta's Arsenal likely to deploy the same unglamorous but effective blueprint used against Sporting CP to get the result they require.
It could be a match with limited attacking opportunities, making the two outstanding shot-stoppers between the sticks crucial to the outcome. A single error could prove fatal, while a vital save at a key moment may protect a lead.
Arteta's choice to field Kepa Arrizabalaga in the Carabao Cup final proved a costly mistake, but David Raya is certain to start this weekend. Raya is on course to claim a third consecutive Premier League Golden Glove, yet statistically, Gianluigi Donnarumma has outshone him this campaign.
According to Opta, the Italian has prevented the fifth-highest number of goals in the division (+3.5), while Raya sits 15th (-1.0). Donnarumma also holds the highest save percentage in the Premier League (73.6%).
Arsenal's solid defensive structure means Raya is called upon less frequently than City's imposing goalkeeper, who ended the Gunners' Champions League hopes last season and could now threaten their title aspirations.
Arsenal's struggles in front of goal suggest Donnarumma is unlikely to face a barrage, though his distribution and ability to deal with aerial balls will inevitably be tested.
2. Taming Cherki
Pep Guardiola has acknowledged that finding the right balance within this Manchester City squad has been a significant challenge, though the Spaniard appears to have found his answer by reading some Eckhart Tolle and "letting go."
Guardiola expressed regret over his decision not to start Rayan Cherki in the 1–1 draw at West Ham United last month and has since consistently deployed the electrifying Frenchman in a No. 10 role.
While Arteta has faced criticism for his cautious approach, Guardiola has leaned into his team's attacking potential, with balance provided by Nico O'Reilly's versatile role that has allowed Bernardo Silva to roam freely and Cherki to flourish.
After a dull opening half at Stamford Bridge last weekend, Cherki stepped up at a defining moment in City's season, registering two assists to help his side establish a 2–0 advantage. Only Bruno Fernandes (18) has more assists than Cherki (10) in the Premier League this term.
The hosts possess a range of attacking threats, particularly out wide, but Cherki is the creative heartbeat operating as City's wildcard in the run-in. Arteta is unlikely to deploy an Ander Herrera on Eden Hazard-style marker, as José Mourinho did in 2017, but Arsenal's midfield and backline must remain vigilant.
Martín Zubimendi has occasionally lost his shape during the second half of the season but returned to top form during the week, while William Saliba is typically reliable when tasked with snuffing out danger before it develops.
3. Erling Haaland vs. Gabriel
Erling Haaland has found the net five times in 10 appearances against the Gunners, including a goal in each of the last three meetings between these two sides.
Nevertheless, Arsenal's formidable center-back partnership of William Saliba and Gabriel has largely succeeded in restricting the Norwegian's opportunities. The striker needs only the slightest opening to make his mark.
City have demonstrated, during their recent revival, that they can prevail without Haaland's goals, but his impact on any match he features in remains unmistakable. Last week, for instance, Haaland's presence in the box drew two Chelsea defenders, leaving the advancing O'Reilly in a one-on-one with Andrey Santos. The City youngster overpowered the Brazilian to head home Cherki's cross and hand the visitors a vital lead.
The collective effort opponents make to neutralize Haaland has compelled others to step up, but Arteta may entrust his primary defender, Gabriel, with a traditional man-marking assignment to avoid stretching his resources elsewhere.
There is no shortage of animosity between the two, and Gabriel will be eager to make the contest as physical as possible. He cannot be left isolated against City's talisman, but should feel confident as long as Haaland remains within his reach.
Their battle, particularly inside the Arsenal penalty area, will be as influential as any in determining Sunday's result.
4. Stopping Arsenal's Set-Pieces
Arsenal's average non-penalty xG across their last five matches stands at 1.2—the second-lowest figure over any five-game stretch this season.
Chance creation from open play has been a persistent concern throughout the campaign, with key creative players Martin Ødegaard, Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka either sidelined through injury or failing to reach their usual standards.
Alarmingly for the Gunners, their set-piece efficiency has also failed to compensate recently. They have not scored from a corner or free-kick in any of their last 10 matches.
Nevertheless, the visitors will undoubtedly look to exploit their dead-ball quality on Sunday, despite City's composure when defending such situations. The hosts have conceded the second-lowest xG from set-pieces in the league. Nine goals conceded is hardly impenetrable, however.
Arteta may have a few tricks up his sleeve to make the most of these opportunities, particularly if their open-play struggles continue. Saka has already been confirmed absent for Sunday's fixture.