Mexico Strikes Gold in World Cup Draw: El Tri's Path to Glory Revealed

The Mexican national squad discovered their three group stage adversaries for the 2026 World Cup, and fortune has smiled favorably upon Javier Aguirre's team.

Mexico will welcome South Africa in the tournament's inaugural match on June 11 in Mexico City before traveling north to Guadalajara to face South Korea in their second encounter on June 18.

El Tri will conclude group play back in the capital city against the victor of UEFA's Playoff D, which may be Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, or the Republic of Ireland.

Aguirre's squad is hardly considered among the tournament favorites. Following a six-match winless run to close 2025, substantial work remains before the competition begins to demonstrate marked progress by the opening fixture.

However, there's a fresh wave of enthusiasm, anticipation, and confidence surrounding El Tri after the 2026 World Cup group stage draw. Here are four insights explaining precisely why.

An Historic Opening Encounter

Precisely 16 years afterward, Mexico will meet South Africa once more in the World Cup's opening fixture, creating the first instance in tournament history of a repeated inaugural match pairing.

El Tri managed only a stalemate against South Africa in the 2010 World Cup opener, but performing before what will undoubtedly be an electric Estadio Azteca crowd, Mexico will fancy their prospects against the "Bafana Bafana" to begin their 2026 World Cup journey triumphantly.

Regarding the Estadio Azteca, the Mexico City football shrine will become the first venue in history to stage three World Cup opening matches.

Aguirre, who also coached Mexico against South Africa in 2010, would be prudent not to overlook El Tri's opening adversary. South Africa led the World Cup qualifying group they shared with African giant Nigeria and will be determined to disrupt El Tri's celebration on June 11.

Nevertheless, South Africa was, theoretically, among the weaker teams in Pot 3, and Mexico will begin their World Cup campaign expected to claim the opening victory.

Known Adversary Following

Mexico will face South Korea at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara for their second group stage fixture, mirroring the 2018 World Cup when El Tri triumphed over South Korea 2–1 in Russia.

Aguirre's team managed a 2–2 stalemate against South Korea in a friendly during the recent September international window. Much can evolve in nine months, but Mexico can and will certainly examine the insights gained from the recent encounter to prepare for the World Cup clash.

Though Mexico required a Santiago Giménez injury-time strike to prevent defeat, they were marginally superior to South Korea overall. Indeed, it was among the rare matches since the 2025 Gold Cup where El Tri dominated possession phases and even appeared somewhat fluid and creative in attack—uncommon during the latter half of 2025.

South Korea's pace, individual skill, and overall dynamic approach troubled Mexico, and that's something Aguirre must address in the coming seven months. But if El Tri develops solutions—particularly defensively—to neutralize their opponent's preferred approach, they have every opportunity to depart Guadalajara with a favorable outcome.

Group Stage Finale Mystery

Mexico won't discover their final group opponent until the UEFA Playoff D matches occur next March. Denmark leads as the favorite to progress and become Mexico's concluding group stage rival, but UEFA World Cup playoffs are notoriously unpredictable—just ask Italy.

Regardless of which European opponent Mexico encounters in their third and final group match, competing at the Estadio Azteca at 7,350 feet elevation provides a significant advantage.

Whether facing Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, or the Republic of Ireland, Aguirre's team possesses the capability not only to compete with, but to overcome a—at most—second-tier European side.

The third and concluding group stage encounter will likely decide Mexico's knockout phase fate. At their spiritual home and historic stronghold, El Tri has every advantage needed to deliver.

Nine Points Should Be El Tri's Clear Objective

The 2026 World Cup draw couldn't have unfolded much more favorably for Mexico, there's no alternative way to express it. The majority of El Tri's aspirations depended entirely on the draw results and, as the situation clarifies, this approaches a dream scenario as closely as they could have wished, particularly given they'll contest all three matches on home territory.

Undervaluing South Africa, South Korea, and any of the four possible European opponents is something Aguirre and company cannot risk. But there's no questioning El Tri avoided the strongest teams they might have potentially encountered.

Consequently, the entire tournament perspective shifts dramatically. It won't be simple to accomplish, but Mexico should approach the World Cup determined to capture all three group stage victories to qualify atop Group A and host a round of 32 match at the Estadio Azteca, simply put.

The circumstances aligned for Mexico to have a very achievable route toward the round of 16. Accomplishing this would represent the first occasion in World Cup history El Tri plays five matches in a single tournament, given the expanded 48-team format.

Mexico remains an imperfect team lacking world-class caliber talent, so anticipating a deep World Cup campaign stays unrealistic. However, considering how the draw developed, El Tri's goal must be topping the group and advancing to the round of 16.

Anything beyond is bonus, anything below is disappointing.

READ the latest world cup news, previews & analysis here