MLS Cup Playoffs: Which Teams Will Survive the Do-or-Die Game Three Battles?

Few leagues worldwide can generate rivalries as rapidly as Major League Soccer, particularly during the MLS Cup playoffs.

Ever since the league implemented the Round One best-of-three format in 2023, series that extend to a decisive third match consistently create tension for the following season and fuel animosity between the competing teams.

This pattern will likely continue in 2025, as five of the eight opening-round matchups are heading to Game 3, providing one squad the opportunity to progress while leaving the other with much to contemplate—especially if they secured Game 1.

Sports Illustrated forecasts each potential result from this weekend's contests.

(4) Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC (5)

With just a single goal tallied across the opening two matches, the battle between Charlotte FC and New York City remains incredibly tight, potentially destined for a decisive moment or even a penalty shootout to determine the winner.

Following Alonso Martínez's spectacular individual effort that propelled NYCFC to victory in Charlotte during the series opener, The Crown equalized the matchup via penalties in Game 2. Though Charlotte was without key player Wilfried Zaha in Game 1, the former Premier League standout failed to create substantial impact in the second encounter as well.

Charlotte FC manager Dean Smith had found success earlier this campaign with creative midfielder Pep Biel and forward Patrick Agyemang. However, since both departed, and despite Idan Toklomati's solid striking performances, they've lost some of that competitive advantage, making this winner-take-all contest particularly difficult.

NYCFC, conversely, possess that crucial edge through Matt Freese's excellent goalkeeping form and the match-changing capabilities of Martínez and Nicolás Fernández Mercau.

Prediction: Charlotte FC 1–2 NYCFC

(3) Inter Miami vs. Nashville SC (6)

Inter Miami have contested several important matches this season, but Saturday evening's Game 3 showdown against Nashville SC at their home venue represents a club and generation-defining moment. Anything short of victory would officially mark the era of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets as unsuccessful.

Suárez will be unavailable due to suspension, while Alba and Busquets face additional pressure to succeed, as defeat would send them unceremoniously into retirement. Meanwhile, Messi hopes to guide his team to triumph once more and prolong his teammates' playing careers.

However, they have been outplayed. Nashville SC performed admirably despite the 3–1 defeat in the opener and elevated their play in Game 2 with a 2–1 home victory, containing Miami's attacking threats for the majority of the match.

With Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar, Nashville possess attacking options and have discovered their role as defensive disruptors through Edvard Tagseth and Andy Najar.

This encounter will be tight, but Miami should possess sufficient quality to prevent consecutive first-round eliminations.

Score Prediction: Inter Miami 3–2 Nashville SC

(2) FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew (7)

The Hell is Real Derby delivered an outstanding single-elimination match in the 2023 Eastern Conference Final. Might we witness something comparable with Game 3 this season?

For FC Cincinnati, this represents a cannot-lose situation. Given the significant investment in players like Kévin Denkey, Evander and Brenner, the organization has assembled the foundation of a squad that should compete for MLS Cup. Nevertheless, their track record consistently shows postseason disappointments.

The Crew, however, are constructed for playoff success. While they may lack a prominent goalscorer following marquee summer acquisition Wessam Abou Ali, they possess crucial depth players and other game-changers like Max Arfsten, Diego Rossi, Darlington Nagbe and, to some degree, Jacen Russell-Rowe.

Securing victory at TQL Stadium won't be straightforward, but after demolishing Cincinnati 4–0 in Game 2, we're backing a Columbus triumph in Game 3.

Score Prediction: FC Cincinnati 2–2 Columbus Crew (Columbus advance in pens.)

(1) San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers (8)

San Diego FC have been the superior side throughout the initial two games of their series against the Portland Timbers, but suffered misfortune in the penalty shootout following a 2–2 stalemate in Game 2, enabling the Cascadia club to even the series.

Returning to Snapdragon Stadium, head coach Mikey Varas will maintain confidence in his squad. Having scored twice in each contest, they've demonstrated their offensive capabilities in postseason play and represent the more reliable team between the two—the Timbers haven't achieved comparable consistency levels, despite acquiring Kristoffer Velde during the summer.

While San Diego might be favored away from home given their road record this season, they remain the probable team to advance in front of their home crowd, particularly if Anders Dreyer and Hirving "Chucky" Lozano can reach peak performance.

Score Prediction: San Diego FC 2–0 Portland Timbers

(4) Minnesota United vs. Seattle Sounders FC (5)

Among all the Game 3 matchups, this contest holds the greatest potential for an attacking spectacle. Neither squad defends exceptionally well, and both thrive in significant matches—particularly the Seattle Sounders, a franchise renowned for playoff achievements.

Sounders head coach Brian Schmetzer modified his approach in Game 2, deploying Danny Musovski as a traditional striker, positioning Jordan Morris in a slightly withdrawn role and utilizing Cristian Roldan's ball-progression skills.

Much of this tactical setup will likely remain unchanged for a Sounders team that seeks to make late runs into the penalty area and position their key players behind Minnesota's backline; however, the Loons will be confident in their ability to withstand pressure and strike on counter-attacks.

If Kelvin Yeboah were fully fit for Minnesota, this scenario might differ, but we're selecting Seattle to progress to the Western Conference semifinals, overcoming MLS Goalkeeper of the Year, Dayne St. Clair.

Score Prediction: Minnesota United 1–2 Seattle Sounders FC