MLS Supporters' Shield Battle Heats Up: Which Contender Will Claim the Crown Among the Top 10?
In the majority of global leagues, the Supporters' Shield represents the pinnacle achievement.
The 2025 MLS campaign has witnessed one of the most competitive regular season championship battles in the league's three-decade existence, featuring nine clubs within 10 points of frontrunners Philadelphia Union, with multiple challengers holding matches in reserve.
Given all the variables in the season's closing weeks, the champion may not be determined until Decision Day on Oct. 18, but which organizations can sustain their current momentum?
Sports Illustrated forecasted the remainder of the 2025 Supporters' Shield competition. We've organized the clubs according to their current points-per-match standings.
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union currently lead following Matchday 35, fresh from a 1–0 victory against New England Revolution that elevated them to 60 points this campaign. Nevertheless, they endured a difficult previous week featuring a 7–0 defeat to Vancouver Whitecaps and a U.S. Open Cup semifinal elimination by Nashville SC.
Andre Blake has returned to his goalkeeping duties after recovering from injury, providing stability to the position following some subpar displays from 19-year-old keeper Andrew Rick. Still, manager Bradley Carnell's squad appears to have lost momentum in the campaign's latter half and has found it difficult to assert dominance as they did previously.
They'll require peak performances from forwards Tai Baribo and Milan Iloski, plus consistent defensive displays, to fend off rival contenders, particularly with two of their remaining three fixtures against formidable opponents Charlotte FC and New York City FC.
Predicted points: 65
Inter Miami
Inter Miami aim to retain their 2024 Supporters' Shield crown, possessing an impressive five remaining fixtures, most against highly manageable opposition.
Following mid-campaign difficulties, Miami has regained momentum lately and currently enjoys a three-game winning run after victories over Seattle Sounders FC, D.C. United and New York City FC during the initial phase of a congested end-of-season schedule.
For the Herons, everything depends on Lionel Messi. The Argentine icon seized the MLS Golden Boot leadership with two goals and one assist in the recent NYCFC triumph, consistently demonstrating his capacity to elevate Miami with his 24 goals and 13 assists.
The worry, however, centers on the remaining roster and their capability to perform should Messi require rest due to the compressed fixture list before playoffs or sustain an injury. The 38-year-old remains the crucial player, having been involved in 38 of the club's 64 goals this season, and the team struggles significantly without his scoring prowess or creative influence.
Manager Javier Mascherano has positioned his team favorably, but their aspirations depend entirely on Messi.
Predicted points: 66
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC maintain excellent form and benefit from fixture advantages, with four matches remaining after a midweek 1–1 stalemate with Portland Timbers, following a 2–0 victory over Sporting Kansas City and 7–0 demolition of Philadelphia.
This represents unexplored territory for the organization, having exceeded their MLS points record with the SKC victory, while also matching their previous benchmark with 16 wins and 13 shutouts in regular season play. However, their games in hand and squad depth should provide genuine championship prospects.
They were without attacking talents Thomas Müller, Brian White, and Ryan Gauld, plus center-backs Tristan Blackmon and Ranko Veselinović, during the recent SKC victory, but their depth emerged across all areas, with White returning to score in the Portland draw.
However, they haven't utilized club captain and designated player midfielder Gauld since March 8, while other significant injured players include Blackmon and Vesilinović, the latter sidelined for the entire season. Müller, meanwhile, is anticipated to return for at least the Canadian Championship Final on Oct. 1, possibly earlier.
Considering the opposition quality, travel demands and Canadian Championship final significance, the Whitecaps may struggle to remain in Shield contention, though it could ultimately depend on Decision Day scoreboard monitoring.
Predicted Points: 63
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati captured the Supporters' Shield in 2019 and possess genuine opportunities to claim it this campaign, with three fixtures remaining.
Manager Pat Noonan's team has rediscovered form with back-to-back victories after managing just one win during a five-match period, facing a reasonably achievable remaining schedule against Orlando City SC, New York Red Bulls and CF Montréal.
The Orlando encounter will present their greatest challenge, and they should secure victories in the final two seasonal matches. If successful, it will likely depend on the attacking trio of MLS MVP candidate Evander, summer returnee Brenner and striker Kévin Denkey, MLS history's third most expensive incoming transfer.
Brenner has netted three times in three appearances since joining before the August secondary transfer deadline, while Evander has scored 17 goals and Denkey 13, with the trio accounting for 33 of Cincinnati's 47 seasonal goals.
The defensive structure may not rank among the league's finest, but Cincinnati have demonstrated clutch performance ability and could easily ascend the standings in their remaining fixtures.
Predicted Points: 63
San Diego FC
San Diego FC lead the Western Conference following Matchday 35, but may face the most difficult path to the Supporters' Shield among the top five points-per-game leaders.
With three matches remaining, they can only observe the Whitecaps' progress below them, hoping for dropped points. Meanwhile, they'll face a manageable schedule, though against teams that have created difficulties this season.
Manager Mikey Varas has constructed a system around Anders Dreyer and Hirving "Chucky" Lozano this campaign, with the pair contributing 33 and 19 goals respectively. Yet, the absence of an effective striker could prove costly after losing Milan Iloski during the summer.
Their recent form has also declined, with a loss to Minnesota United and Atlanta United draw potentially crushing their Supporters' Shield ambitions. Regarding Western Conference leadership, they'll need the Whitecaps to surrender points.