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"There are no favorites left anymore," England manager Thomas Tuchel stated as the World Cup field was narrowed down to just four teams.
Rather than a subtle dig at his own squad, Tuchel was making the case that the margins separating nations at this point in the tournament are so slim that any of them could realistically lift the trophy. All four semifinalists have previously won the competition (some more recently than others), which theoretically supports his argument.
Nevertheless, most observers would contend that the draw splits neatly into two halves: a pair of genuine contenders and two sides that have scraped their way into the last four in far from convincing style. Distinguishing between those two pairings, however, is considerably more difficult.
4. Argentina
Group Stage: Algeria (3–0), Austria (2–0), Jordan (3–1)
Round of 32: Cabo Verde (3–2)
Round of 16: Egypt (3–2)
Quarterfinal: Switzerland (3–1)
Resilience or recklessness? Competitive fire or chronic complacency? This knockout-stage incarnation of Argentina is a study in contradictions, yet has somehow managed to claw its way into a second consecutive semifinal.
Lionel Messi failed to get on the scoresheet against Switzerland, but everything once again revolved around the diminutive genius. And, much like the nervy Egypt win, it was a match steeped in controversy. Safe to say that Hossam Hassan's firm conviction that the tournament has been tilted in Argentina's favor will not have wavered after yet another edgy display.
Never attribute to conspiracy what can be explained by incompetence. If FIFA truly wanted Messi back in the final, they certainly haven't briefed Argentina's leaky defense on the master plan.
3. England
Group Stage: Croatia (4–2), Ghana (0–0), Panama (2–0)
Round of 32: DR Congo (2–1)
Round of 16: Mexico (3–2)
Quarterfinal: Norway (2–1)
The directive for England heading into the quarterfinal against Norway was straightforward: take the handbrake off. Instead, Thomas Tuchel's side stuttered and labored through one of the team's most forgettable performances of the summer. As the German coach openly conceded, they were "lucky" to scrape through with a 2–1 win after extra time.
Following the heady excitement of the Estadio Azteca triumph, which was a masterclass in in-game management, Tuchel appeared to be making substitutions almost at random. Some paid off—Djed Spence once again impressed in a cameo—while others clearly backfired: Eberechi Eze's introduction in place of Declan Rice fatally hollowed out England's midfield. If there was a coherent plan, it was far from evident.
While some may feel England's luck is bound to run dry, Harry Kane chose to frame the arguably unmerited progress in a positive light.
"We are in the semifinals of a World Cup without having played our best football," the Three Lions skipper said. "If we can find that level on Wednesday, it could be the difference between winning and losing this tournament."
Fortunately for England, Wednesday's semifinal comes against an Argentina side that may be even more disjointed.
2. Spain
Group Stage: Cabo Verde (0–0), Saudi Arabia (4–0), Uruguay (1–0)
Round of 32: Austria (3–0)
Round of 16: Portugal (1–0)
Quarterfinal: Belgium (2–1)
Spain may not have set the tournament alight with its methodical style of play, but Luis de la Fuente is a coach focused on winning games rather than winning admirers.
Lamine Yamal is not at full fitness, Nico Williams has barely made an impression, and even Pedri's seemingly untouchable standing has come under scrutiny. Yet Spain has advanced steadily toward the semifinals with minimal fuss.
The reigning European champion has yet to fall behind this summer and has dropped points in normal time just once: an opening goalless stalemate with Cabo Verde. Given how impressively that tournament surprise package performed in the weeks that followed, that result looks better with every passing day.
For all of Spain's composure, a single standout display from Yamal could ignite the entire campaign and push the team's measured progress into a higher gear.
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1. France
Group Stage: Senegal (3–1), Iraq (3–0), Norway (4–1)
Round of 32: Sweden (3–0)
Round of 16: Paraguay (1–0)
Quarterfinal: Morocco (2–0)
Given the wealth of talent at Didier Deschamps's disposal, he acknowledged that it might seem "logical and natural" for France to reach a third straight World Cup semifinal. Yet, as he was quick to add: "You still have to go out and do it."
Rarely has any side accomplished that feat with such panache.
Since a sluggish opening half against Senegal in their tournament debut, France has swept through the rest of the competition. Heading into a mouth-watering semifinal clash with Spain, Les Bleus have netted eight goals since last being breached this summer.
Thanks to the tireless work of the supporting cast around Kylian Mbappé, France has managed to preserve its defensive solidity without resorting to Deschamps's familiar tactic of deploying a third midfielder at the expense of a fourth attacker.
"The credit belongs to the players," the reinvented manager smiled, "but perhaps I am also doing my job well."