Real Madrid Faces Hidden Dangers in Deceptively Challenging Champions League Playoff Draw
Real Madrid is set to clash with Benfica in the Champions League knockout phase playoffs, a fixture that promises either vindication or total embarrassment.
The 15-time European titleholders were sitting pretty in third place during the league phase standings before Matchday 8, requiring just a victory against José Mourinho's squad to secure automatic qualification for the round of 16. Even a tie would have guaranteed a top-eight position, considering Los Blancos' impressive goal differential.
However, Álvaro Arbeloa's team was thoroughly dominated at the Estádio da Luz and endured a crushing 4–2 loss, sending them tumbling to ninth place and forcing them into the playoff round to begin their knockout campaign.
The team was destined to meet either Bodø/Glimt or Benfica, and fate dealt them the more challenging opponent—a Benfica squad now overflowing with self-assurance and armed with the tactical knowledge of how to dismantle Real Madrid.
Benfica Now Have the Blueprint to Exploit Real Madrid
Benfica Now Possess the Formula to Outmaneuver Real Madrid
Before Wednesday's encounter, Real Madrid were overwhelming favorites to secure three points against Benfica. The Portuguese side had, after all, endured five losses in the league phase while managing only six goals.
When the final whistle echoed through Lisbon, the home team had netted four times, unleashed 22 shots despite holding merely 33% possession, and neutralized Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, and Franco Mastantuono. While Kylian Mbappé managed a double, few teams this campaign have successfully stifled the French star.
Benfica will feel assured about duplicating their display, given that the playoffs commence just two weeks following the league phase conclusion. Los Blancos will not only lack their sidelined defenders—Antonio Rüdiger, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Éder Militão, and Ferland Mendy—who won't be match-fit by then, but they'll also miss the suspended Raúl Asencio, further compromising their defensive structure.
Benfica v Real Madrid. Reload it. pic.twitter.com/VO9AOIH6K8
Players like Andreas Schjelderup and Vangelis Pavlidis will relish their opportunities against such a fragile defense. Additionally, Rodrygo faces suspension for the match after his stoppage-time dismissal, leaving Arbeloa short-handed in attack as well.
Despite missing several crucial players, Real Madrid will pray they can reverse their fortunes sufficiently to overcome a team they should—theoretically—defeat. However, if Mourinho can orchestrate his squad to neutralize most of Los Blancos' offensive threats, spring to life in transitions, and compete with genuine intensity, the tactician might engineer another shocking victory over his former employer, particularly if the Spanish powerhouse again emerges sluggish, careless, and content with sideways passing for extended periods.
Real Madrid's Potential Route to the Final Contains Familiar Adversaries
Real Madrid's Prospective Path to the Final Features Known Rivals
Overcoming Benfica represents merely the opening challenge for Real Madrid. Should the Spanish titans advance to the round of 16, significantly tougher opponents await them.
Possible Round of 16 Opponents
Potential Round of 16 Adversaries
Manchester City clearly represents the opponent Los Blancos will desperately want to sidestep in the round of 16. These European powerhouses already met during the league phase, with Pep Guardiola's side claiming a 2–1 triumph—and that preceded the English club's acquisitions of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi.
The Citizens will also hunger for revenge following last season's elimination, when Real Madrid ousted them during the knockout phase playoffs.
Possible Quarterfinal Opponents
Potential Quarterfinal Matchups
The challenge intensifies for Real Madrid should they reach the quarterfinals. Los Blancos would likely confront Arsenal, who completed the league phase with a perfect record, or Bayern Munich, a team suffering just two losses across all competitions this season.
Facing either club positions Real Madrid as underdogs, an unfamiliar role for the 15-time European champions in their beloved tournament. They would naturally prefer encounters with Borussia Dortmund or Atalanta, though such favorable draws seem optimistic at best.
Possible Semifinal Opponents
Potential Semifinal Encounters
Multiple teams could potentially await Real Madrid in the Champions League semifinals, but none pose greater threats than reigning European champions PSG or arch-nemesis Barcelona. PSG previously demolished Los Blancos 4–0 in the Club World Cup semifinals, while the Catalans continue celebrating their Spanish Super Cup victory over Real Madrid.
The Madrid-based club would also seek to avoid Liverpool, another team that already bested them in 2025–26. Given their recent struggles against English teams, Chelsea represents a formidable obstacle as well.
Only a campaign echoing their historic European triumphs would deliver Real Madrid to the Champions League final in May.