Shocking Numbers Reveal Arsenal's Fatal Weakness in Premier League Title Race

All seven Premier League matches where Arsenal have lost points share a striking similarity: the absence of set-piece goals.

The Gunners were frustrated in a scoreless draw with Nottingham Forest on Saturday night, missing the chance to establish a nine-point cushion over Manchester City following their unexpected defeat at Old Trafford earlier that day.

Fortunately for Arsenal, Aston Villa's mishap against Everton meant they still increased their advantage at the Premier League summit. However, these recurring offensive struggles will certainly raise concerns in north London.

A seven-point margin represents a solid buffer with over half the season complete, yet Mikel Arteta understands how quickly any advantage can evaporate. Arsenal topped the Premier League standings for 248 days during the 2022–23 season but still managed to finish as runners-up. That campaign saw them hold an eight-point lead over Manchester City as late as April 1st.

The irony could strike them again if this concerning set-piece dependency remains unresolved.

Arsenal's Set-Piece Reliance and Game State

Arsenal's Set-Piece Reliance and Game State

Arsenal have secured only two Premier League victories without netting from set pieces this season: both home London derbies versus Tottenham Hotspur and Brentford. More frequently, these triumphs have not merely featured dead-ball situations but been fundamentally shaped by them.

In 11 of Arsenal's 15 league victories this campaign, the opening goal originated from a set piece. The significance of how differently Arteta's team performs based on the match situation cannot be understated.

When holding a 1–0 advantage, the Gunners have been virtually unstoppable, collecting 46 points from 48 available after taking the lead. This exceptional ability to protect leads is reflected in the underlying statistics; Arteta's squad proves far more dangerous when opponents are forced to chase the game and demonstrates superior defensive stability when protecting their own advantage.

This pattern becomes even more evident when examining away fixtures exclusively. Failing to establish an early lead and neutralize hostile atmospheres during travels has resulted in numerous disappointing outcomes on the road. Arsenal have actually fallen behind in six of their 11 away encounters, surrendering points in five of those matches.

Arsenal Are Strong Frontrunners

Arsenal Are Strong Frontrunners

Statistics courtesy of Macro Football.

What's Going Wrong for Arsenal in Open Play?

What's Going Wrong for Arsenal in Open Play?

Arsenal possess two of the Premier League's most effective playmakers in open play. Only Manchester City's Jérémy Doku generates more chances than Gunners captain Martin Ødegaard, while Bukayo Saka sits fourth league-wide for expected assists per 90 minutes. Unfortunately, Arteta hasn't consistently had access to his key creative talents.

Saka was relegated to the bench against Forest this week following his involvement in Wednesday's Chelsea clash in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg. Ødegaard featured in both matches but has yet to reach 1,000 Premier League minutes this season after enduring the campaign's opening months plagued by various injuries. Twelve Arsenal players have received more opportunities than the club captain, including the disappointing Eberechi Eze.

While Saka and Ødegaard rank among the league's premier creators, no other Arsenal squad member approaches their productivity. Eze, acquired supposedly as the creative catalyst to unlock the stubborn defenses Arsenal regularly encounter, appears to have misplaced his magic touch.

Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard... and Everyone Else

Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard... and Everyone Else

Data from Opta.

Throughout his playing time, the former Crystal Palace playmaker has struggled to make an impact, recording merely 0.12 expected assists from open play per 90 minutes. By contrast, Saka (0.26) and Ødegaard (0.23) deliver nearly double that output.

Breaking down teams in open play presents a formidable challenge for a side constantly confronting packed defensive formations. "It won't be as smooth, it won't be as dynamic, because there's no room to operate," Arteta previously lamented about this issue.

"When you're stuck in traffic, I want to travel at 100 miles per hour but I have three buses and 55 taxis and motorcycles surrounding me, so it's challenging."

Set pieces have provided Arsenal with a bypass around the congestion, but when that path is blocked, they must discover alternative routes to the net.