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Four of the past five World Cup finals have been settled in extra time or through a penalty shootout, and few would be surprised if similarly tight margins define Sunday's encounter between Spain and Argentina.
On paper, Spain appears to be the frontrunner to lift the trophy. Yet, as every opponent has learned throughout this North American tournament, writing off a relentlessly driven Argentina side is simply not an option.
Both camps boast match-winning talent ahead of a mouth-watering showdown at MetLife Stadium, with a host of individual battles set to play a decisive role as elite players go head-to-head.
Here are three crucial matchups that could prove pivotal in Sunday's final.
Lamine Yamal vs. Lionel Messi
The World Cup final has been framed as a Lamine Yamal vs. Lionel Messi showdown — and it's hard to argue against that compelling narrative.
There is simply so much that connects the two, from their shared Barcelona roots and breathtaking dribbling skills to that iconic photograph. At opposite ends of their careers, Sunday could mark the moment the torch is passed from Messi to the player born 20 years after him — or perhaps the Argentine's status as an extraordinary, once-in-a-generation talent will only be further cemented.
Messi's recent form suggests he could well come out on top in a first-ever head-to-head with Yamal. Having bailed Argentina out on multiple occasions this summer and steered the defending champions through turbulent waters with eight goals and four assists, the 39-year-old remains in a class entirely his own.
Yamal, however, already has the experience of playing in a major international final, having helped Spain claim Euro 2024, and is more than capable of producing one of those electrifyingly dominant displays so often seen at club level in Catalonia. Though injury has limited his influence in this tournament, he still possesses the ability to take over Sunday's match entirely.
While the two won't directly face each other on the MetLife Stadium pitch, all attention will be fixed on which superstar can inspire their nation to glory.
Rodri vs. Leandro Paredes
Rodri vs. Leandro Paredes perfectly captures the contrasting philosophies at the heart of Spain and Argentina's midfields. Composure, control and elegance are the hallmarks of Luis de la Fuente's engine room, while tenacity, grit and tactical cunning are what Lionel Scaloni demands from his.
Spain's path to the final has been shaped significantly by Rodri, who has rediscovered his Ballon d'Or-winning best following an injury-disrupted club campaign. The fact that La Roja has conceded just once speaks to how effectively he has shielded the backline, while his precise distribution has enabled his side to suffocate opponents through prolonged spells of possession.
Rodri will need to be fully switched on this weekend as he faces the dual threat of Julián Alvarez and Messi, both of whom will drop into deeper areas to exploit space in front of Spain's defensive line. The Manchester City midfielder must be at his commanding best to ensure that the Argentine duo, along with the attack-minded Enzo Fernández, cause minimal damage — a task far easier said than done.
Paredes has been equally influential for Argentina, forcing his way into the starting eleven with ferocious midfield performances. While no teammate surpasses his passes (111.9) or accurate long balls (3.2) per 90 minutes — highlighting his value in possession — it is his average of 5.2 defensive contributions per game that sets him up well against a Spain side determined to control the ball.
Finals are frequently decided by who wins the midfield battle. Sunday may be no exception.
Unai Simón vs. Emiliano Martínez
Argentina understands better than most just how vital a world-class goalkeeper can be in a World Cup final. Without Emiliano Martínez's heroic stop in the dying moments of the 2022 final against France — and his crucial save in the subsequent penalty shootout — La Albiceleste might never have been crowned champions.
The South American powerhouse will likely rely heavily on Martínez once again this weekend. Spain has registered more touches in the opposition box (239) than any other side this summer, while also ranking third for overall expected goals (13.3). Defensively, Argentina has looked surprisingly vulnerable in the knockout rounds, conceding in every match and shipping two goals apiece against Cabo Verde and Egypt.
Martínez has done little to shore up that leaky backline, having stopped just 56.2% of the shots he has faced. For his Spanish counterpart Unai Simón, the tournament has been comparatively straightforward.
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La Roja has kept six clean sheets from seven matches and Simón has faced just 11 shots on target in total, stopping all but one. The defense in front of him has been largely impenetrable, even against a star-studded French attack. But Messi and company will certainly test that resolve.
A monumental goalkeeping display may well be the deciding factor in determining the world champion — and that's before even factoring in the prospect of a penalty shootout.