Supercomputer Crunches the Numbers on Argentina's World Cup Fate Following Squad Announcement

Defending world champions Argentina arrives at this summer's World Cup as one of the top contenders to claim the title once more.

Featuring star players such as Enzo Fernández, Julián Alvarez and, naturally, Lionel Messi, Argentina boasts one of the most formidable squads heading to the tournament hosted across the United States, Mexico and Canada, where Messi is set to become one of the first players ever to feature in six World Cup editions.

No nation has successfully defended the World Cup title since 1962, yet Argentina, Copa América winners in both 2021 and 2024, has every reason to be confident about its prospects of another historic victory.

In the lead-up to the tournament, the Opta supercomputer has assessed Argentina's probability of lifting the trophy.

Supercomputer Predicts Argentina's World Cup Group Stage Odds

Argentina is the clear favorite to top Group J — and that comes as little surprise to anyone.

Austria and Algeria both carry the potential to pose some difficulties, however, while underdog Jordan looks set for a tough ride through the group stage.

Despite the presence of some potential dark horses in the group, only Spain is given higher odds of finishing first in its group than Argentina, which commands an impressive 72.55% probability.

Austria appears to be Argentina's most credible threat, yet odds of just 13.26% suggest anything short of a victory for La Albiceleste would be a major shock.

That said, even if Argentina underperforms during the group stage, the revised format — where the top two sides advance along with the eight best third-place finishers — gives Argentina a remarkable 96.81% chance of progressing to the round of 32.

Supercomputer Predicts Argentina's World Cup Knockout Stage Odds

Given the level of opposition in Group J, Argentina will likely have its sights set firmly on the knockout rounds from the outset.

The stakes could rise sharply as early as the round of 32. Should Argentina finish as group winners, they would face the runner-up from Group H, which includes both Spain and Uruguay. With Spain holding the highest odds of topping that group, Uruguay would be the most probable opponent.

Argentina's chances of advancing to the round of 16 dip to 63.16%, though it's worth noting that only three teams are given better odds — Spain among them.

Winning that match would bring a favorable draw, as the bracket points to either Australia or Iran as the next opponent. Scaloni's squad will feel confident in that scenario and, once again, holds the fourth-best odds of reaching the quarterfinals at 45.29%.

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If the projected path holds, a blockbuster clash between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo could materialize in the quarterfinals. Colombia and Switzerland are also plausible opponents, though none should pose an insurmountable challenge, and the supercomputer gives Argentina a 30.48% chance of reaching the final four — a figure bettered by only three other nations.

England or Brazil could be lying in wait at the semifinal stage, and this is where the road becomes more uncertain. The Three Lions are among the three teams rated above Scaloni's side, though Argentina's 18.05% chance of reaching the final trails England's 19.21% by only a slim margin.

A place in the final would most likely set up a showdown with Spain. Unfortunately for Argentina, La Roja leads all teams with the highest championship odds at 16.12%, well clear of the field and ahead of Argentina's 10.34%.