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The most recent Premier League matchday brought confirmation of the first club to be sent down to the Championship.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have had their place secured in England's second division for some time now, and Burnley's demotion is also just a formality. Which unfortunate club will complete the trio of relegated sides remains undecided.
Tottenham Hotspur put in a strong display against high-flying Brighton & Hove Albion but were denied by a 95th-minute leveler that left them languishing in 18th place. Luckily for Roberto De Zerbi's outfit, West Ham United couldn't capitalize on Monday.
A goalless stalemate with Crystal Palace was enough to condemn Wolves, though it did little to relieve West Ham's survival anxieties. Nuno Espírito Santo's Hammers hold a two-point advantage with five matches remaining, while even Nottingham Forest's five-point buffer isn't entirely safe at this point in the campaign.
With five fixtures still to go, here's how the Opta supercomputer forecasts the relegation battle unfolding.
Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle
The already-relegated Wolves carry a 100% relegation probability (naturally) and Burnley, despite retaining a slim mathematical chance of staying up, are assigned the same likelihood.
Scott Parker's squad face the daunting challenge of needing to avoid defeat against title-chasing Manchester City on Wednesday to delay their relegation. A defeat would guarantee Championship football next season, and even an improbable draw would essentially confirm it given Burnley's dire goal difference.
Above those two is where the real tension lies and, unfortunately for Spurs supporters, it is De Zerbi's side who remain most likely to go down.
Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
16. | Nott'm Forest | 36 | 42.00 | 4.38% |
17. | West Ham | 33 | 38.54 | 36.90% |
18. | Tottenham | 31 | 36.88 | 58.33% |
19. | Burnley | 20 | 24.16 | 100.00% |
20. | Wolves | 17 | 22.90 | 100.00% |
Spurs currently trail West Ham by two points and are not expected to bridge that deficit across their five remaining games.
A visit to bottom club Wolves next weekend presents Spurs with their best opportunity to lift spirits, and a potentially winnable clash with 15th-placed Leeds United also awaits, but demanding encounters against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Everton could prove highly problematic.
West Ham's remaining schedule actually appears somewhat more challenging. Fixtures against Everton, Brentford, Arsenal and Newcastle United come before a final-day showdown with Leeds, meaning Nuno's men will need to dig deep to secure their top-flight status.
Playing into West Ham's hands, however, is their recent form. The Hammers have collected two victories and two draws from their last five outings, and a comparable return would almost certainly be enough to guarantee their survival.
Spurs, meanwhile, must look all the way back to Dec. 28 for their last Premier League victory. This year has delivered European successes over Atlético Madrid, Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund, but Spurs' league form has been utterly dismal throughout 2026.
De Zerbi will be counting on ending that winless streak against Wolves and will never have a better chance to do exactly that.