Supercomputer Forecasts Mexico's World Cup Fate Against Co-Hosts Following Squad Announcement

"There has never been a squad that's been universally praised," Mexico head coach Javier Aguirre cautioned, "and this one will certainly be no different."

The veteran manager is no doubt right, yet he only amplified the speculation around the 26 players he would name through a peculiar, drawn-out process that stretched across nearly a month. After announcing his first 12 selections back in April, Aguirre eventually revealed the final 14 at the close of May, finally bringing some clarity to Mexico's tournament preparations.

El Tri was the last of the co-hosts to announce its squad. Mauricio Pochettino's moment was overshadowed by a leaked list for the U.S. men's national team, while injuries have thrown a wrench into Jesse Marsch's Canadian plans, but the identities of the 78 players set to compete on home soil have (almost entirely) come to light.

With the squads now confirmed, there's no better moment to consult Opta's powerful supercomputer for a glimpse into how these rosters are projected to perform before their home supporters.

Getting Through the Group Stage

Every World Cup is made better when the host nation advances past the opening round. Given the significantly expanded format of this 48-team competition, the likelihood of progressing through the group stage has never been higher.

Even with these favorable conditions, Mexico has still been assigned an impressive 87.61% probability of advancing to the round of 32. Aguirre's side has been handed a relatively manageable group, facing South Korea (ranked 25th globally by FIFA), Czechia (41st) and South Africa (60th), all on home ground. The Qatar World Cup four years ago marked the first time since 1978 that Mexico had failed to clear the group stage — a repeat of that disappointment looks unlikely.

Canada also exited the 2022 tournament at the first hurdle and has yet to earn a single World Cup point, let alone a victory. Expectations are high that this talented generation of Canadians can make history — and those hopes may not be unrealistic. Marsch's side faces playoff qualifiers Bosnia and Herzegovina, a Qatar team that rarely performs well away from home, and a crafty Swiss outfit.

Interestingly, Canada is given a slightly higher chance of sneaking into the knockout rounds than the USMNT — though both are projected to advance. There's even a tantalizing scenario where the U.S. tops its group while Canada finishes third, potentially setting up a round-of-32 clash between the two co-hosts.

World Cup Co-Hosts' Groups

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"We're all locked in on the ultimate objective," Aguirre stated ahead of his squad announcement, "which is for Mexico to have our greatest-ever World Cup." Reaching the semifinals would be uncharted territory for El Tri, who last advanced to the quarterfinals in the previous two editions of the tournament that they hosted.

Mexico holds the strongest probability among the co-hosts of reaching the round of 16, the quarterfinals, or the semifinals. However, the odds tilt toward the USMNT when it comes to the final. Pochettino has openly spoken about winning the entire competition, drawing widespread mockery. Opta has put a figure on that ambition, giving the Stars and Stripes a notable 3.34% chance of reaching the final and 1.21% odds of hoisting the trophy on July 19.

"I don't want to be the one who says the USA will never win the World Cup and then they actually go and do it," Norway's Manchester City forward Erling Haaland joked last summer. "So I'd say there's a 1% chance they pull it off." He wasn't too far wrong.