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Wrexham's first Championship season in 43 years is building toward a thrilling conclusion that will decide the club's playoff destiny.
After a poor run of results in early April pushed the Red Dragons out of the playoff positions, consecutive victories have reignited their promotion hopes. Phil Parkinson's side defeated Stoke City and then Oxford United to move back into sixth place with just two matches remaining.
However, seventh-placed Hull City are level on points with Wrexham, meaning the Welsh club cannot afford any slip-ups to end the season. A strong finish will be far from straightforward, as they face a trip to newly crowned champions Coventry City this weekend before wrapping up their campaign against playoff rivals Middlesbrough.
Here's how Opta's supercomputer forecasts the Red Dragons' chances of clinching a spot in the Championship playoffs.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Championship Playoff Race
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Playoff Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Millwall | 79 | 82.58 | 57.08 |
3 | Ipswich Town | 76 | 82.15 | 51.82 |
4 | Southampton | 76 | 79.23 | 93.22 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 73 | 78.45 | 97.58 |
6 | Hull City | 70 | 72.73 | 48.44 |
7 | Wrexham | 70 | 72.40 | 48.46 |
8 | Derby County | 66 | 68.80 | 2.68 |
At the top of the standings, Coventry City have already sealed their long-awaited return to the Premier League. Millwall are best placed to finish second and earn automatic promotion, though Ipswich Town are applying pressure. Opta projects both clubs to finish on approximately 82 points, but gives the current runners-up a slight advantage.
Whichever side misses out on automatic promotion will still have the consolation of the playoffs, joined by the teams finishing fourth, fifth, and sixth. The supercomputer backs in-form Southampton and Middlesbrough to qualify comfortably, assigning the former 93.22% odds and the latter 97.58% odds of keeping their top-flight ambitions alive.
The real contest is between Hull and Wrexham for the final playoff berth. Despite the Red Dragons currently occupying sixth place, Opta projects them to slip to seventh by season's end. The Tigers are tipped to claim the playoff spot instead.
The gap between the two sides is razor-thin, however, which should give supporters plenty of encouragement. Hull are projected to finish with 72.73 points against the Red Dragons' 72.40, and just 0.02 separates their respective playoff probabilities.
A single result in the final two matches could overturn the projections and allow Wrexham to sneak into the playoffs — but only if they win both of their remaining fixtures.
When Can Wrexham Secure a Place in the Championship Playoffs?
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With only two games left in the season, Wrexham will likely need to wait until the final day to learn their fate. It could come down to a photo-finish between the Red Dragons and Hull for sixth place.
The encouraging news for supporters is that both clubs kick off their final matches simultaneously (12:30 p.m. BST / 7:30 a.m. ET / 4:30 a.m. PT), meaning they will know the moment the final whistle blows on Saturday, May 2 whether the Red Dragons have done enough to earn a playoff place.
Should Wrexham and Hull finish level on points, as they currently stand, goal difference will serve as the tiebreaker. At the time of writing, Parkinson's side hold the advantage with a +6 goal difference compared to the Tigers' +4.