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"We need to win," Mauricio Pochettino stated on the eve of the U.S. men's national team's World Cup opener. "The important thing is to win."
History belongs to the victors and that, ultimately, is what Pochettino believes the Stars and Stripes can become on July 19. While some may question the Argentine's unwavering confidence in this group of players—particularly when his reasoning amounts to little more than two words: "Why not?"—there remains a genuine possibility that the U.S. could go all the way this summer.
That possibility is remote. Opta's supercomputer assigns the USMNT just over 3% probability of reaching the final in New Jersey next month. Those long odds are largely explained by the formidable lineup of potential opponents standing between the USMNT and glory.
USMNT's Predicted Route to 2026 World Cup Final
Round of 32
The supercomputer anticipates Pochettino's squad finishing second in Group D, edged out narrowly by Türkiye. As Australia manager Tony Popovic noted when reflecting on a group rounded out by Paraguay, any team can topple any other in that bracket: "I'm sure every nation looks at the teams and says, 'O.K., we've a chance.'"
Should the U.S. finish as runners-up, the co-host would face its counterpart from Group G. With Belgium projected to top those standings, Iran emerges as the most probable opponent.
This politically charged matchup would be a diplomatic minefield. Tensions ran high on the previous two occasions these nations met in World Cup competition, yet they were not engaged in an active ongoing conflict in 1998 or 2022.
Round of 16
Should the USMNT navigate past Iran without triggering a global crisis, Lionel Messi's Argentina would almost certainly be waiting in the wings.
The reigning world champion enters the tournament in outstanding form, riding a seven-game winning streak and three consecutive major tournament victories. The last time Argentina entered an international competition without claiming the title was the 2019 Copa América.
Quarterfinal
In the highly improbable scenario that Pochettino can overcome his home nation and guide the U.S. to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002, he would trade one legendary figure for another. Despite ample evidence pointing to more productive alternatives, this remains very much Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal.
The 41-year-old White House visitor boasts an impressive qualification record in recent major tournaments, netting 15 goals across 14 qualifying matches. Yet Ronaldo has consistently struggled to leave his mark on the grandest stage in recent years. The veteran striker's only goal at the last European Championship or World Cup came from the penalty spot.
Semifinal
If the USMNT can exploit Portugal's self-inflicted limitations, they could well face an England side that has firmly embraced collective effort over individual brilliance.
Thomas Tuchel made his philosophy clear through his squad selection, prioritizing the best functioning XI over simply picking the 11 most talented English players. With the likes of Cole Palmer and Phil Foden watching from home, the U.S. would face the combined force of a squad operating (in theory) as a cohesive unit.
Final
After overcoming the legends of the game's storied past and its powerful present, the USMNT's most likely reward for reaching the final would be a showdown with Spain. The reigning European champion is favored over France on the opposite side of the bracket, and with a talent like Lamine Yamal in their ranks, few would dispute that assessment.
The USMNT has not defeated one of Europe's traditional powerhouses since a 2–1 friendly victory over Germany a year after being crowned world champion in 2014. Pochettino's side would need to break new ground to achieve the kind of run their manager is dreaming of, but, to borrow his own words, "Why not?"