Supercomputer Reveals How Far USMNT Will Surge in the 2026 World Cup After Storming Into Round of 16

The USMNT is beginning to embrace the idea of miracles after securing its first World Cup knockout round win in 24 years on Wednesday.

The tournament co-hosts extended their impressive run under Mauricio Pochettino with a 2–0 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32, with Folarin Balogun netting and receiving a controversial red card before Malik Tillman sealed the win in the final minutes.

"Everything is possible, why not us?" Pochettino has repeatedly declared throughout the tournament, and a growing number of hopeful American fans are starting to take him at his word. With three wins from four World Cup outings, the dream is gaining momentum.

But does Opta's renowned supercomputer agree? It has been working overtime this summer, forecasting every possible outcome across the expanded 48-team tournament, and it has now revised the USMNT's chances of claiming glory on home turf following Wednesday's result.

Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's World Cup Finish

The USMNT had been given a 76.96% probability of defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32, and while its chances of advancing in the round of 16 have narrowed, it is still considered a slim favorite heading into next Monday's decisive clash with European powerhouse Belgium at Lumen Field.

The supercomputer gives the USMNT a 50.06% chance of reaching the quarterfinals of the World Cup for only the third time ever, and the first since the 2002 tournament held in Japan and South Korea.

Belgium's dramatic 3–2 comeback win over Senegal serves as a reminder of their quality, but Rudi Garcia's squad has been largely underwhelming at this tournament and was extraordinarily lucky to escape elimination on Wednesday.

Naturally, things would become considerably more difficult should the Stars and Stripes advance to the quarterfinals. They are guaranteed to face another European opponent, with Spain, Austria, Portugal, or Croatia all potential unwelcome challengers.

Realistically, Spain and Portugal appear the most probable opponents, and the USMNT would be bracing for a tough test against either of the Iberian giants in California. Consequently, they are given just an 18.39% chance of reaching the semifinals, a figure that will shift depending on who they face.

A potential semifinal against Morocco, France, Paraguay, or Canada would then await, though it will almost certainly be France, who have comfortably been the standout performers of the tournament so far. This grueling path to the final is reflected in the USMNT's modest 6.06% chance of reaching the championship match.

Should Pochettino's side somehow battle through to the 104th game of this summer's competition, they are given a 2.32% chance of lifting the trophy—currently lower than the likes of Colombia, Mexico, and Norway. A potential final against Brazil, England, or Argentina looks most likely if the USMNT dares to map out its path to the ultimate stage.

This World Cup has already delivered some massive upsets, many involving nations punching well above their weight. As Pochettino has been eager to remind the press, why can't the USMNT go all the way?

SI answers is our AI answer engine trained on human-created content.

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