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"What is Champions League level?" Former Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp once pondered. "I saw a lot of rubbish games at Champions League level."
The exhilarating nature of this season's quarterfinal ties may well have satisfied Klopp's benchmark for European excellence. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid produced two instant classics while Barcelona and Atlético Madrid engaged in their own fierce battle on Spanish soil. Even Liverpool managed to give Paris Saint-Germain some problems on a charged Anfield evening. Arsenal and Sporting CP may have delivered a contest that wasn't always pretty, but a tense tactical duel simmered just beneath the surface.
The semifinals look set to generate another round of captivating encounters. As Bayern Munich face PSG in the more glamorous half of the draw, Mikel Arteta and Diego Simeone will both be reaching deep into their tactical arsenals to find a path to the final with Arsenal and Atlético.
Opta's supercomputer has taken on the formidable challenge of forecasting that showpiece fixture as well as identifying the team most likely to claim the Champions League crown.
Supercomputer Ranks the Chances of Every Champions League Semifinalist
David Raya is Arsenal's most important player.
The most clean sheets in the Premier League and Champions League this campaign. Since the start of last season, 13 clean sheets in 18 Champions League home games, making the Emirates a fortress. The backbone to Arsenal's defence.… pic.twitter.com/C3uQL2qcJe
Rank | Team | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|
1. | Arsenal | 36.75% |
2. | Bayern Munich | 34.61% |
3. | PSG | 19.35% |
4. | Atlético Madrid | 9.29% |
Of all the remaining sides in the tournament, Arsenal comfortably possess the least Champions League heritage. The one-time beaten finalists are pitted against an Atlético side that reached the showpiece occasion twice under Simeone. The club might even have been European champions five decades earlier had Miguel Reina, father of former Liverpool goalkeeper Pepe, not been beaten by a tame long-range effort from Hans-Georg Schwarzenbeck mere seconds before the end of the 1974 European Cup final.
Bayern Munich claimed that year's trophy following a replay, the first of the club's six European titles. PSG joined the list of winners just last year.
Despite their limited pedigree at this stage of the competition, Arsenal remain the frontrunners in the supercomputer's cold calculations. Evidently, little weight has been placed on the team's recent form.
After enduring 90 uninspiring, goalless minutes against Sporting on Wednesday, even an eternal optimist like Gunners manager Mikel Arteta conceded: "We are not perfect, we need to improve things, that's for sure."
No side remaining in the Champions League is "perfect," which is precisely what makes the competition's final stages so compelling. Bayern Munich may hold the advantage in many observers' eyes after accumulating 37 goals so far, including six across two legs against Real Madrid. However, they also shipped four goals against this struggling version of Los Blancos.
PSG boast an even more dangerous attacking unit than Bayern and will not surrender their European title without a fierce fight. Yet, the numbers are not in their favor.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Semifinals
Date | Fixture | Likeliest Winner |
|---|---|---|
Tuesday, April 28 | PSG vs. Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich (61.28%) |
Wednesday, April 29 | Atlético Madrid vs. Arsenal | Arsenal (73.40%) |
As the excitement of a seven-goal thriller against Real Madrid continued to echo around the Allianz Arena, Kompany was asked how it ranked among the finest moments of his managerial career. A knowing smile spread across the Belgian's face. "I remember we beat Blackburn twice [with] Burnley," Kompany immediately recalled. Perhaps a semifinal triumph over the reigning European champions will eclipse a Lancashire derby victory.
Bayern are favored to progress past PSG in the last four, and with good reason. The German champions have already defeated their French rivals this season, matching the remarkable physical intensity of Luis Enrique's side with a bold man-marking strategy that Arteta has called to be banned from the game.
Arsenal's semifinal clash with Atlético has been dreaded by some neutrals as a showcase of negative football. However, if any team is going to drag the tie into a grinding battle, it will be the Gunners. Arteta's men have been compelled to rely on their defensive resilience as their attacking fluency has faded — Arsenal have conceded just five goals in Europe throughout the entire campaign.
Atlético, contrary to popular belief, are no longer the hardened defensive unit of old. In fact, Azerbaijani minnows Qarabağ are the only side to have let in more Champions League goals than Simeone's leaky defense this season.
In a contest between a faltering attack and a resolute defense, Arsenal are expected to hold the upper hand. Whether they can go the distance and lift the trophy is an entirely different question.