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Title holders Paris Saint-Germain and Premier League frontrunners Arsenal have both secured their spots in the 2026 Champions League final, though only one side will be crowned European champions in Budapest.
The Gunners entered the second leg of their semifinal against Atlético Madrid aiming to reach their first Champions League final since 2006. A Bukayo Saka strike proved decisive at the Emirates Stadium, delivering Arsenal a 1–0 win on the night and eliminating Los Colchoneros 2–1 on aggregate.
Then, a day later, PSG faced off against Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena. The match lacked the goal-laden drama of the first leg, but Luis Enrique's side demonstrated composure and quality, earning a 1–1 draw on the road to book their place in back-to-back Champions League finals, advancing 6–5 on aggregate.
With the stage now set for European football's grandest occasion, here's how the Opta supercomputer assesses each finalist's probability of lifting the Champions League trophy.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner
Team | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
Arsenal | 55.76% |
PSG | 44.24% |
Opta appears unfazed by PSG's continental experience and potent attack, backing Arsenal to claim their first-ever Champions League title on May 30.
The supercomputer gives Mikel Arteta's squad a 55.76% probability of emerging victorious in Budapest. Should the Gunners defeat the Parisians in the coming weeks, they will have completed an unbeaten run throughout Europe's top club competition.
Whatever criticisms are leveled at their pragmatic style, set-piece dependency, or limited creativity in attack, Arsenal's defensive unit is unrivaled—and Opta clearly trusts the backline marshaled by Gabriel and William Saliba to deliver a historic triumph for the north London club.
Having netted a record 44 Champions League goals this season, PSG will no doubt be the popular pick to overcome what many consider an uninspiring Arsenal outfit. Yet Opta projects them falling short with a runner-up finish.
The reigning champions are given a 44.24% chance of successfully defending the European crown, a feat only Real Madrid has achieved in the Champions League era. Both history and the supercomputer's projections work against PSG, but Enrique's men will pay little attention to that.
After all, they were largely dismissed last season following Kylian Mbappé's departure and a disappointing league phase campaign, yet went on to lift their first-ever Champions League trophy. PSG once again found themselves navigating the knockout phase playoffs in 2025–26, but they are back on the final stage, hungry to write themselves into the competition's history books.