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Rather than easing concerns about a dramatic late-season collapse, Mikel Arteta's Arsenal compounded their troubles on the south coast following their Carabao Cup final defeat.
The Gunners' hopes of an historic quadruple were ended by Manchester City at Wembley, but their post-international break loss at Southampton means even a treble was nothing more than a fleeting dream.
Southampton's 2–1 victory on Saturday evening eliminated Arsenal from the FA Cup and only intensified speculation that Arteta's side are set to 'bottle' what would be their first Premier League title in just over two decades.
Arsenal still hold a commanding nine-point advantage over City, who have a game in hand, but momentum has clearly swung toward the Sky Blues following back-to-back domestic cup exits for the north London club.
Here's how consecutive defeats have affected Arsenal's Premier League title prospects, according to Opta's supercomputer.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winner
Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Arsenal | 70 | 84.57 | 97% |
2. | Man City | 61 | 74.82 | 3% |
Manchester City built on their Carabao Cup triumph with a dominant thrashing of Liverpool in their FA Cup quarterfinal, with Erling Haaland netting a hat-trick in a commanding 4–0 victory.
Despite the change in atmosphere, Opta remains relatively calm. Arsenal are still heavy favorites to claim the Premier League title, with their chances of winning it dropping by just 0.77% since the league's top two sides last featured in a league fixture.
City hold just a 3% chance of reclaiming their title, though that figure could rise sharply if they defeat Arsenal when the two sides meet at the Etihad Stadium on April 19.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Champions League Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
3. | Man Utd | 55 | 66.06 | 86.33% |
4. | Aston Villa | 54 | 65.12 | 77.38% |
5. | Liverpool | 49 | 60.22 | 21.95% |
6. | Chelsea | 48 | 58.33 | 10.12% |
7. | Brentford | 46 | 55.67 | 1.81% |
8. | Everton | 46 | 55.33 | 1.57% |
Arsenal's cup struggles, naturally, have little impact on the battle to secure a place in next season's Champions League, with three additional spots likely available behind the top two.
Aston Villa were the standout beneficiaries of the previous Premier League gameweek, taking advantage of Liverpool and Chelsea's respective losses to Brighton & Hove Albion and Everton by defeating West Ham United 2–0.
Their probability of clinching a Champions League berth has risen to 77.38%, with third-placed Manchester United virtually guaranteed a return to Europe's premier competition. The Red Devils continue to thrive under Michael Carrick, sitting seven points ahead of Chelsea in sixth.
The Blues, who advanced to the FA Cup semifinals with a 7–0 demolition of Port Vale, have seen their top-five hopes dwindle to just 10.12%. Nevertheless, they remain the most likely side to overtake Liverpool across the remaining seven fixtures, with Brentford and Everton holding only slim chances of qualifying for the first time.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
15. | Leeds | 33 | 41.94 | 6.61% |
16. | Nottingham Forest | 32 | 40.99 | 9.04% |
17. | Tottenham | 30 | 38.52 | 26.33% |
18. | West Ham | 29 | 36.94 | 58.14% |
19. | Burnley | 20 | 26.13 | 99.91% |
20. | Wolves | 17 | 24.98 | 99.90% |
Tottenham Hotspur turned to Roberto De Zerbi to drag them out of trouble, after Igor Tudor's 44-day tenure concluded with Spurs sitting just a single point above the relegation zone.
Despite De Zerbi's appointment, Spurs' relegation odds more than doubled to 26.33% following a 3–0 home defeat to relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, a result that significantly boosted Forest's survival prospects.
With Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley effectively doomed, West Ham remain Opta's most likely candidate to join them in the Championship next season.
Leeds United's six-game run without a win means they are not yet out of danger, but upcoming home fixtures against the bottom two give Daniel Farke's squad a strong opportunity to accumulate the points needed to secure their top-flight status.