Supercomputer Reveals USMNT's Real World Cup Odds Following Germany Showdown

"I think it was a good performance," USMNT head coach Mauricio Pochettino said following his team's slim loss to Germany on Saturday.

Playing host to the European powerhouse at Soldier Field, the USMNT endured the worst possible opening as Arsenal's Kai Havertz put Germany ahead within just two minutes, before Antonee Robinson leveled things up heading into halftime with a spectacular strike and an equally flamboyant celebration.

Leroy Sané found the net just before the hour mark to wrap up the win for Germany, but Pochettino was eager to emphasize the closeness of the result against one of the planet's elite national sides.

"I am happy with the performance of everyone," he added. "We play one of the most important teams in the ​world.

"I think we need to be ​happy with that. We compete, [we were] unlucky, I think it was as ‌an ⁠even game. It was an amazing challenge for us to see how we react, how we show character, how we show togetherness, how we start to play under pressure."

The USMNT is looking to cement itself as a legitimate contender ahead of this summer's World Cup, but what does the Opta supercomputer project for Pochettino's squad following Saturday's result?

Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's Chances at 2026 World Cup

The friendly seems to have delivered the intended outcome for Pochettino, as the USMNT's prospects of a deep tournament run this summer have slightly improved following the Germany match.

This summer's co-hosts are still considered favorites to top what promises to be a competitive group. Group D also includes Türkiye, Paraguay and Australia, and while all three sides have every reason to feel optimistic about their own qualification hopes, the USMNT leads the pack with a 33.08% probability of finishing first in the standings.

Even if things don't go entirely the USMNT's way in the group stage, a 77.10% chance of advancing to the round of 32 means an early exit would be nothing less than a massive surprise.

With a knockout stage berth looking likely, the USMNT must brace for a considerable step up in competition. The probability of reaching the round of 16 falls to 42.22% which, while higher than before the friendly, still trails 15 other teams in the tournament, underscoring the fine margins at that point in the competition.

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Likewise, 15 teams hold better odds of reaching the quarterfinals which, if the supercomputer's projections hold, appears to be a bridge too far for the USMNT. Still, odds of 20.03% represent an improvement for the side and they remain within striking range of several other nations. A bit of luck may be required to go further.

Pochettino has previously spoken of the semifinals as an aspirational target for the USMNT, but an 8.68% probability of reaching that stage makes the scale of the challenge abundantly clear. Similarly, a 3.39% chance of making the final doesn't look encouraging on paper, even if it still marks another uptick for the USMNT.

Notably, however, the supercomputer has actually lowered the USMNT's odds of lifting the World Cup trophy—the only stage where their probability has declined. With just a 1.30% chance of ultimate glory, Pochettino's squad clearly has plenty of ground to cover before they can be considered true world-beaters.