Supercomputer Reveals USMNT's Shocking Odds of Winning the 2026 World Cup on Home Soil

With fewer than 50 days remaining, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is nearly upon us, and the U.S. men's national team is set to square off against Group D opponents Paraguay, Australia and Türkiye.

Despite setbacks against Belgium and Portugal during the March international window, all indicators suggest a promising campaign for the Stars and Stripes this summer. Not only will they arrive on the world stage with greater experience—at least 12 roster members took part in the 2022 World Cup—but nearly all of their key players are hitting their stride at precisely the right moment.

Strikers Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi have both been in red-hot form for their respective clubs, combining for 13 goals since mid-February while firing on all cylinders for AS Monaco and PSV Eindhoven. Weston McKennie is also enjoying the finest season of his career in midfield, serving as a dependable presence for Juventus.

Goalkeeper Matt Turner is even mounting a late push, determined to convince USMNT boss Mauricio Pochettino that he remains just as deserving of the starting spot as he was in 2022.

Even if U.S. talisman Christian Pulisic continues to struggle in front of goal, the Americans may still have enough to compete.

The Opta supercomputer has been running the numbers, producing predictions for the USMNT's World Cup journey this summer.

Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's Odds at World Cup Success

Group Stage

The U.S.—ranked 16th in the world heading into the tournament—opens group play against No. 40 Paraguay on June 12 in Los Angeles. They then travel north to Seattle to take on No. 27 Australia, before returning to Los Angeles to wrap up the group stage against late qualifier No. 22 Türkiye.

Though considered the frontrunners in the group, the USMNT was assigned only a 33.00% probability of topping Group D. Türkiye trails closely with a 28.81% chance.

Fortunately, under the expanded tournament format, the top two teams from each group automatically advance to the knockout round, along with eight third-place finishers.

Knockout Stages

This World Cup marks the first edition to feature the expanded 48-team format, necessitating a round of 32. Opta was unable to produce data on every team's probability of reaching the round of 32, likely due to the complexity introduced by having eight third-place teams also advance—an outcome determined by more granular match results: total points first, then goal difference and goals scored.

Nonetheless, the USMNT was given a 26.78% chance of finishing as Group D runners-up, meaning that when combined with their first-place probability, the team has a 59.78% overall chance of automatically securing a spot in the Round of 32.

The U.S. was given a 41.97% chance of progressing to the round of 16, a milestone they reached for the sixth time in World Cup history back in 2022.

Beyond that, Opta projects the team's prospects to drop sharply, with only a 19.66% chance of reaching the quarterfinals. Of the six times the Americans have competed in the round of 16, they have only advanced past that stage once—defeating Germany 1–0 in 2002 to claim a quarterfinal berth.

The Stars and Stripes have just an 8.32% chance of making the semifinals, a sobering figure for Pochettino, who has publicly stated his ambition of achieving a historic semifinal appearance—a stage the team has only reached once before, in the inaugural 13-team 1930 World Cup.

The U.S. was given a 3.30% chance of reaching the World Cup final, a stage the team has never previously experienced, and a 1.22% chance of lifting the trophy. While the odds of ultimate glory are slim, they are not zero. For context, tournament favorites Spain and France carry a 15.63% and 13.04% chance, respectively, of claiming the championship.