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The final matchday of the Premier League season arrives this weekend, with the last relegation spot to the Championship still undecided.
Tottenham Hotspur's loss at Chelsea on Tuesday evening has kept the relegation battle alive, with Spurs needing to hold off West Ham United to secure their top-flight status and avoid following Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers into the second division.
One game remains for Tottenham to preserve their Premier League status at the end of a thoroughly dismal campaign, and their fate is in their own hands heading into Sunday's final day. Given their performances this season, that offers little comfort, and West Ham will still be hoping to overtake their London rivals.
Here's how the Opta supercomputer forecasts the relegation battle will unfold this weekend.
Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle
Predicted Position | Team | Actual Points | Predicted Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
17. | Tottenham | 38 | 39.73 | 14.09% |
18. | West Ham | 36 | 37.78 | 85.91% |
19. | Burnley (R) | 21 | 22.42 | 100% |
20. | Wolves (R) | 19 | 20.31 | 100% |
With Burnley and Wolves already confirmed as relegated, only one drop zone place remains. Unfortunately for West Ham, they currently occupy it, knowing they must not only win this weekend but also depend on Spurs dropping points.
The Hammers sit two points adrift of their relegation rivals, but given Tottenham's significantly better goal difference, West Ham know that three points alone will only be sufficient if Spurs suffer a defeat.
The slim probability of West Ham winning while Spurs lose is evident in Opta's projections. According to the supercomputer, Nuno Espírito Santo's side face an 85.91% chance of going down when they welcome Leeds United on the season's final day.
Supercomputer Predicts Final Day Results
Outcome | Tottenham vs. Everton | West Ham vs. Leeds |
|---|---|---|
Home Win | 50.4% | 51.5% |
Draw | 22.8% | 23.8% |
Away Win | 26.8% | 24.7% |
Nevertheless, West Ham are far from out of contention. Tottenham host Everton in their final game chasing just their third home Premier League victory of the season. At their own ground, Spurs have managed two wins, six draws and a staggering 10 defeats — a joint-worst home record in the league, level with Burnley.
It is entirely conceivable that Spurs fall to defeat against Everton, even with their opponents enduring a poor run of form. Tottenham simply cannot be counted on.
Roberto De Zerbi's Spurs present a somewhat different challenge, however, having lost just twice in six matches under the Italian. A point would be enough for Tottenham to secure their survival.