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Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain return to the UEFA Super Cup, this time squaring off against Europa League champions Aston Villa on Wednesday at Red Bull Arena.
Luis Enrique's squad joined Real Madrid in the Champions League history books last season as the only two clubs in the modern era to successfully defend Europe's most coveted club title in consecutive seasons. PSG edged Arsenal in a penalty shootout back in May to retain their crown as European champions.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, claimed their first major honor in three decades when they dismantled Freiburg in last season's Europa League final. Unai Emery's side now have the opportunity to kick off 2026–27 with a piece of silverware, though getting past PSG will be no simple task—just ask Tottenham Hotspur.
Spurs clashed with the Parisians in the 2025 UEFA Super Cup and held a comfortable 2–0 advantage until the 85th minute, when the French club launched a remarkable comeback to push the game to penalties, which they ultimately won.
A year on, PSG will once again aim to overcome a Premier League opponent on the way to yet another piece of silverware. Here's how the Opta supercomputer assesses their prospects, along with Aston Villa's, ahead of the high-profile clash.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026 UEFA Super Cup Outcome
Team / Outcome | Chances |
|---|---|
PSG Winning | 45% |
Aston Villa Winning | 29.6% |
Draw / Extra Time / Penalities | 25.5% |
The supercomputer is predictably backing PSG to lift the 2026 UEFA Super Cup. The Parisians are handed a 45% probability of sealing the match within 90 minutes.
It's difficult to wager against Enrique's men, who have collected virtually every available honor in France and across Europe over the past two seasons. Furthermore, the Champions League holders have triumphed in 14 of the last 17 UEFA Super Cups, with Atlético Madrid being the only club—on all three occasions—to defeat the reigning European champions during that period.
PSG may stand out on paper, but they will undoubtedly carry some rust into the fixture. The defending French champions have featured in just two preseason friendlies, and several of the squad's key players only recently returned after participating in the 2026 World Cup.
Aston Villa head into the showpiece event as the clear underdogs. The reigning Europa League champions are afforded just 29.6% odds of claiming victory in Wednesday's match during regulation time.
Emery's side, however, are undoubtedly the sharper team in terms of match fitness. Aston Villa have already featured in five preseason friendlies, most recently suffering a 2–1 loss to Bayern Munich. Should the contest stretch into extra time, the superior conditioning of the visitors could prove decisive.
The Villans will also look to draw inspiration from their spirited display in the 2024–25 Champions League quarterfinals. They fell agonizingly short, losing 5–4 on aggregate to PSG following a thrilling fightback at Villa Park in the second leg, demonstrating they can compete with Europe's finest on their day—though they will be without Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans on this occasion.
Closely trailing Aston Villa's chances of winning the UEFA Super Cup in regulation are the odds of the match going the full 120 minutes. Opta places a 25.5% probability on the game finishing level, triggering extra time and a potential penalty shootout.
PSG will relish the prospect of settling things from the spot. The club did exactly that in the 2025 UEFA Super Cup against Tottenham and again against Arsenal at the Puskás Aréna just three months prior.