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With a few bounces going their way, Tottenham Hotspur might already have secured their safety. Avoid conceding that injury-time equalizer to Brighton & Hove Albion and stop Mathys Tel from attempting an overhead kick in his own box, and Spurs would be beyond West Ham United's reach.
But things didn't play out that way.
Georginio Rutter did find the net in the 95th minute of Roberto De Zerbi's first home match, and Tel did quickly undo his clean opener against Leeds United on Monday evening with a bizarre penalty concession pounced upon by Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Fortunately for Spurs, West Ham have suffered their own costly slip-ups. The heartbreaking loss to Arsenal on Sunday confirmed that the Premier League relegation battle has been narrowed down to a head-to-head contest between these two London clubs. With only two games left to play, Opta's supercomputer has provided its best projection of how this battle will conclude.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Final Premier League Standings
Predicted Position | Team | Actual Points | Predicted Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
17. | Tottenham | 38 | 40.47 | 19.54% |
18. | West Ham | 36 | 38.62 | 80.46% |
19. | Burnley (R) | 21 | 22.78 | 100% |
20. | Wolves (R) | 18 | 20.41 | 100% |
"It's going to be difficult," Nuno Espírito Santo conceded when assessing West Ham's survival prospects following Sunday's painful defeat to Arsenal. Difficult, but not entirely out of reach. The Hammers are given an 80.46% probability of relegation by Opta's supercomputer, dropping out of the top flight in four out of every five simulated outcomes.
Spurs are clear favorites to preserve their Premier League status, yet only two points are projected to separate the two clubs, suggesting this relegation fight could realistically go down to the final day. De Zerbi would expect nothing less: "It will be tough until the last minute against Everton," he cautioned after gaining a clear understanding of just how mentally vulnerable his squad can be.
Tottenham could technically seal their safety before that final Sunday in May. Should West Ham fail to beat Newcastle United at St. James' Park this weekend, Spurs could mathematically confirm their survival with a victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday, May 19.
West Ham, Tottenham's Remaining Fixtures
West Ham | Tottenham |
|---|---|
Newcastle (A) – May 17 | Chelsea (A) – May 19 |
Leeds (H) – May 24 | Everton (H) – May 24 |
As poor as Chelsea's recent form has been, it would be a major shock to see them capitulate against their fierce London rivals on their own ground. Spurs have managed just one win at Stamford Bridge in the past 36 years. Danny Drinkwater was part of the Chelsea squad the last time they lost a home fixture to Tottenham on April Fool's Day 2018.
If De Zerbi is right that this relegation race will be decided on the final matchday, Spurs can draw confidence from their record against Everton. The Toffees have lost their last four visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium by a combined score of 9–1.
West Ham host Leeds at the same time on Sunday, May 24. Daniel Farke's team demonstrated on Monday that they won't simply be going through the motions for the remainder of the season—De Zerbi is certainly counting on that. "Congratulations to Leeds," the Italian manager diplomatically remarked, "they played an excellent game, they still have the final match at West Ham and we have no doubt they will approach it the same way."