Supercomputer Reveals Wrexham's Dramatic Championship Promotion Odds Ahead of Nail-Biting Final Day Showdown

Long before Ryan Reynolds or Rob McElhenney had set foot inside Wrexham's Racecourse Ground — back when the storied Welsh club was still competing in England's fifth division — the ultimate ambition was already firmly established.

"We'd be lying if the dream wasn't the Premier League," Reynolds once confessed. Not even five years on, that dream is starting to look entirely plausible.

Wrexham are just one match away from locking up the final berth in the EFL Championship's promotion playoff places. The top five of Coventry City, Ipswich Town, Millwall, Middlesbrough and Southampton are all beyond reach, yet Hull City and Derby County remain very much in contention for the sixth-place position that Wrexham currently occupy with just one regular-season fixture remaining.

Going into the season's final day on Saturday, the Red Dragons must at minimum mirror the results of Hull (who sit seventh and are level on points with Wrexham) and Derby (eighth, a single point behind) to clinch their postseason berth.

Given the razor-thin points margins and goal differences separating the three clubs, there are countless possible outcomes to consider. Opta have put their supercomputer to work, running through the numbers to produce the most probable scenario from what is shaping up to be a thrilling final day of action.

EFL Championship Standings After 45 Games

Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham, Hull, Derby Final Day Results

To prevent any possibility of collusion, Wrexham, Hull and Derby will all kick off simultaneously on Saturday (12.30 p.m. BST / 7.30 a.m. ET / 4.30 a.m. PT). Derby arguably have the most favorable fixture, hosting a Sheffield United side languishing in 15th place with nothing left to play for. It comes as no surprise that Opta rates them as the most likely winners this weekend, coming out on top in nearly half of the 10,000 simulations processed by the supercomputer.

Wrexham and Hull, meanwhile, face considerably stiffer challenges. Ninth-placed Norwich City's playoff hopes may be extinguished, but few teams would back Hull given their recent run of form — the Tigers have gone six games without a win. In fact, since beating Wrexham on March 10, Hull have only managed to defeat bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday.

The Welsh club have had their own dip in form, most notably being hammered 5–1 by Southampton before falling to Birmingham City and Coventry earlier this month. They also face a Middlesbrough side that can still mathematically clinch automatic promotion with a second-place finish. Ipswich Town (second) and Millwall (third) would both need to drop points while Boro win at Wrexham, but they will undoubtedly be pushing for three points regardless.

Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham's Chances of Qualifying for Championship Playoffs

With such fine margins in play, there is very little separating the three clubs. Wrexham are given the strongest odds of holding onto sixth place, though Hull are far from out of it, sitting level on points with only a slightly worse goal difference. Derby's chances appear slimmer, though they are by no means impossible.

Crucially, Wrexham have a track record in high-stakes finales. As manager Phil Parkinson told Sports Illustrated last weekend: "We've had it our way many times on final days of the season."

Supercomputer Predicts Final 2025–26 EFL Championship Standings