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The 2026 World Cup is nearly upon us, and it could showcase the most consequential soccer matches in U.S. men's national team history.
Since bringing in Mauricio Pochettino to helm the World Cup campaign in the autumn of 2024, the Argentine coach has shaped every decision around the tournament. That moment has now arrived, and the USMNT will be eager to erase the bitter memory of the 2024 Copa América, where, as host nation, it was eliminated in the group stage.
Friday marks the USMNT's tournament debut against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, followed by a clash with Australia in Seattle on June 19, before returning to Los Angeles to face Türkiye on June 25.
Here are Sports Illustrated's three bold predictions for the USMNT at the World Cup.
A Lacklustre Opening Atmosphere
Ticket pricing has been a major talking point heading into the World Cup, with steep costs keeping many passionate fans from witnessing soccer's grandest stage in person. A report from The Athletic on May 28 noted that the USMNT's opener against Paraguay was still thousands of tickets short of a sellout, and while prices had dipped somewhat, no tickets were available below $1,000 at the time of publication.
Though the crowd will still carry energy, it is unlikely to match the electric atmosphere that engulfed Soldier Field in Chicago during the USMNT's 2–1 defeat to Germany in its final pre-tournament friendly.
Even if last-minute ticket purchases fill the stadium, a significant Paraguay contingent could be present. Historically, the USMNT has often felt like the visiting side due to the volume of opposition support at Copa América and Gold Cup fixtures. The expectation is that the World Cup will be a noticeably different experience.
Four Points in the Group Stage
The mood within the USMNT camp and the broader buzz surrounding the team ahead of the World Cup is remarkably high. Yet, there appears to be an underestimation of what Paraguay, Australia, and Türkiye can bring to the group — along with how inconsistent the USMNT has looked under pressure during Pochettino's tenure.
As a result, the USMNT may only manage a win over Paraguay in the opener, a draw against Australia, and a defeat to Türkiye, advancing as a group runner-up on four points.
Australia, ranked 27th globally, kept things tight in a 2–1 loss to the USMNT in an October friendly and wasn't even fielding its best side that day. Factor in the substantial Australian community in nearby British Columbia and Alberta providing vocal support, and it shapes up to be a challenging contest for the USMNT.
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Türkiye, ranked 22nd in the world, arrives battle-hardened after navigating March's UEFA playoff qualifiers. The squad boasts Juventus standout Kenan Yıldız and Real Madrid creator Arda Güler, both capable of matching the USMNT's finest qualities.
That leaves Paraguay — no pushover themselves — as the USMNT's most realistic target for a victory. Failing to secure those three points would send alarm bells ringing almost immediately.
USMNT Beats Iran Before Argentina Ends the Journey
Should the USMNT finish as group runners-up, it would likely set up a politically charged encounter with Iran, which is projected to finish second in Group G — a group that also includes Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand.
The stakes surrounding that round of 32 fixture would be enormous, but the USMNT would ultimately prevail on the pitch and advance to the round of 16, mirroring its run in the 32-team tournament in Qatar four years prior.
Once through to the round of 16, a potential showdown with Argentina awaits. All Argentina would need is a group win in Group J and a round of 32 victory to set up a clash with the co-hosts. At that stage, the Lionel Messi-led side would likely prove too formidable for the USMNT, bringing their tournament run to a close in the round of 16 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.