Top World Cup Picks: Brazil Faces Japan, Germany Battles Paraguay, and Netherlands Clashes with Morocco

Canada netted a goal in added time on Sunday to become the first nation to secure their spot in the Round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup.

Three additional teams will clinch their advancement today, meaning there's plenty of exciting action on the schedule. In this piece, I'll break down my top wager for each fixture. Let's get into it.

Best World Cup Bets Today

SI answers is our AI answer engine trained on human-created content.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Brazil vs. Japan Best Bet

I'm going to back an upset here and wager on Japan to progress to the next round at +250 odds.

Brazil hasn't impressed me as much as I anticipated. In fact, they rank just 20th among all tournament sides in expected goal differential per 60 minutes at +0.31, despite facing two clearly weaker opponents in Haiti and Scotland.

Japan hasn't been dramatically better, posting an expected goal differential of +0.03 per 60 minutes, but their organized, disciplined style of play could cause Brazil some unexpected headaches. Should Brazil be favored to advance? Without question. Should they be -320 favorites? I don't think that's justified. Give me Japan.

Pick: Japan to Qualify (+250)

Germany vs. Paraguay Best Bet

I had high hopes for Paraguay heading into this tournament, but they've let me down. Wrapping up the group stage, Paraguay sits at an expected goal differential of -1.51 per 90 minutes — the worst figure among all qualified teams. Now they must face a German side that ranks seventh in expected goal differential at +1.19.

This has all the ingredients of a Round of 32 blowout.

Pick: Germany -1.5 (+100)

Netherlands vs. Morocco Best Bet

Both the Netherlands and Morocco rank within the top 14 in expected goals for per 90 minutes of play. The Netherlands posts an expected goals for per 90 minutes of 1.78, with Morocco right on their heels at 1.75.

The Netherlands has also shown some shaky defensive displays, recording an expected goals against of 1.38 per 90 minutes played.

If those numbers continue, we could be in for a high-scoring contest.

Pick: OVER 2.5 (+116)

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A Nova Scotia native, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor specializing in betting coverage, with an emphasis on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has appeared on VSIN, BetQL, and Monumental Sports Network. A member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association, his cherished Falcons and Maple Leafs manage to break his heart every single year.