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U.S. President Donald Trump has backed Argentina to lift the trophy in Sunday's World Cup final, largely due to the presence of none other than Lionel Messi.
Trump spoke glowingly about Argentina's star player during an unusual pre-final press conference, expressing particular admiration for his decisive assist for Lautaro Martínez in the semifinal clash against England.
"I would say that it's tough to bet against Messi," the President told Fox Sports ahead of kickoff for what will be his first game attended at this summer's World Cup. "I watched that pass—I guess you'd call it a pass—that was absolutely perfect.
"Though it takes real skill to connect with the ball off your head at that kind of pace. But that was flawless. If you had a strike zone, it landed exactly where it needed to be. And I also watched just before that how he slipped away from his marker. He was being tightly marked. Then all of a sudden he's completely free, and he finished it perfectly.
"And it's tough to bet against him. So I won't take sides, I just think it's very hard to go against Messi. He's incredible."
Messi's brilliance and Argentina's impressive recent winning streak certainly back up Trump's view. The reigning world champion has claimed the last three major competitions it has entered, winning two Copa América titles around that historic Qatar victory four years ago. The last time Argentina suffered a knockout defeat at this level was the 2019 Copa América final against Brazil. Yet, despite all of that—and Trump's endorsement—Messi and his teammates are not the frontrunners.
Supercomputer Clashes With Trump in 2026 World Cup Final Prediction
Only one will earn the right to wear a new star. pic.twitter.com/cA3MvgRYds
After analyzing the data from all 103 matches leading up to the biggest one, Opta's supercomputer has delivered its verdict. The cold, calculating machine stops short of predicting a runaway win, but clearly leans toward Spain.
The reigning European champion is given a 59.5% probability of claiming a second star this summer. Argentina's chances sit at 40.5%. It's not quite a coin toss, but should it come down to the lottery of a penalty shootout, Argentina would surely back themselves.
Spain has been eliminated from more men's World Cup penalty shootouts than any other nation in the tournament's history—even eclipsing England's notorious spot-kick misery. La Roja was knocked out of the previous two World Cups on penalties and will be desperate to settle things before it reaches that point.
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Argentina, on the other hand, thrive in such situations. With a formidable shot-stopper in Emiliano Martínez and reliable takers including Julián Alvarez, Alexis Mac Allister, Lautaro Martínez and Enzo Fernández, that self-belief is well-founded.
Ironically, given that he has missed half of the eight World Cup penalties he has taken, Messi would arguably be Argentina's weakest option in that scenario.