USMNT, Canada, and Mexico Battle for Gold Cup Semifinal Spots in Crucial Quarterfinal Showdowns
The group phase of the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup has concluded, with half of the participating teams now eliminated as the remaining squads prepare for the quarterfinal round and subsequent knockout phases.
The traditional powerhouses of Concacaf have all progressed, including the United States men's national team, Canada, Mexico, and Panama. Three additional nations will aim to make their mark in the regional competition during the quarterfinals, while invited guests Saudi Arabia pursue their own championship aspirations.
The quarterfinal fixtures are scheduled across Saturday and Sunday, with two matches each day determining which teams will advance to Wednesday's semifinal encounters.
Below are Sports Illustrated's match previews and outcome predictions for each quarterfinal clash.
USMNT vs. Costa Rica
Despite pre-tournament worries about absent key players and questionable form entering the Gold Cup, the United States men's national team delivered a flawless group campaign, defeating Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Haiti to collect maximum points while maintaining an impressive 8-1 goal differential.
However, they may face their toughest test yet against Costa Rica in the quarterfinals, particularly considering their narrow 1-0 victory over Saudi Arabia in the group stage.
When facing Los Ticos, the USMNT must contain prolific striker Manfred Ugalde, who found the net three times during the group phase. They'll also need to overcome veteran goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who despite his departure from Real Madrid, continues to excel at age 38 with Argentine club Newell's Old Boys.
Beyond Ugalde and Navas, Costa Rica will threaten the MLS-dominated American squad with their own Major League Soccer talent in New York City FC's Alonso Martinez, who scored once in the group stage and has netted eight times in 16 MLS appearances this season.
Manager Mauricio Pochettino will have considerable talent and momentum at his disposal, particularly with Crystal Palace FC defender Chris Richards and midfield duo Malik Tillman and Sebastian Berhalter available.
This encounter promises to be intense and likely determined by fine margins, though the USMNT should emerge victorious.
Prediction: USMNT 2–1 Costa Rica
Canada vs. Guatemala
The Canadian men's national team experienced a minor setback in their second fixture with a 1-1 stalemate against Curaçao following their tournament-opening 6-0 demolition of Honduras, but recovered with a comfortable 2-0 triumph over El Salvador in their final group match.
Having accumulated seven points while outscoring opponents 9-1, Les Rouges approach the quarterfinals with growing confidence and squad depth, particularly with head coach Jesse Marsch returning to the sideline after completing a two-match suspension.
Although Canada has rotated their starting formation in each fixture thus far, the El Salvador match likely provided insight into their optimal eleven and which players can excel in physical, disrupted contests—something star forward Jonathan David characterized as "typical Concacaf."
Expect Marsch to deploy a defensive line featuring Alistair Johnston, Luc de Fougerolles, Derek Cornelius, and Richie Laryea on Sunday. He'll utilize Jonathan David in attack alongside Promise David, with a central midfield pairing of Nathan Saliba and Mathieu Choinière.
Guatemala, meanwhile, will rely on former MLS standout Rubio Rubin in attack and D.C. United fullback Aaron Herrera, facing a difficult task made harder by the absence of Columbus Crew SC reserve goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen.
Securing a positive result in what promises to be another bruising encounter won't be straightforward, but the CanMNT remain determined and confident as they seek their first Gold Cup triumph since 2000.
Prediction: Canada 3–1 Guatemala
Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia
Although Mexico couldn't secure victory against Costa Rica in their final group match, they've still appeared among the tournament's strongest sides and remain favorites to claim the trophy at NRG Stadium in Houston on July 6.
While Edson Álvarez has anchored the team from midfield throughout this competition, El Tri have received contributions throughout their squad, with center-back Cesar Montes leading the team with three goals. The striking duo of Raul Jiménez and Santiago Giménez are also performing effectively despite combining for just one goal.
Nevertheless, this won't be a straightforward match against Saudi Arabia, after the visiting nation restricted the USMNT to a 1-0 result and conceded only two goals across three group stage encounters. Additionally, head coach Herve Renard possesses the experience to orchestrate upsets, having guided the Saudis to victory over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Expectations remain elevated for Mexico following their dominant Concacaf Nations League triumph in March, and head coach Javier Aguirre's squad will demand nothing short of an emphatic victory against the guests.
Prediction: Mexico 3–0 Saudi Arabia
Panama vs. Honduras
Currently ranked 33rd by FIFA, Panamanian football has reached unprecedented heights, and Los Canaleros will be envisioning a fairytale journey to the Gold Cup final, having reached the Concacaf Nations League final earlier this year.
Driven by tournament top scorer Ismael Diaz's five goals, Panama topped the scoring charts, finding the net 10 times during victories over Guadeloupe, Guatemala, and Jamaica throughout the group phase.
Beyond Diaz, Tomas Rodriguez has also scored in every match, while Marseille center-back Amir Murillo has delivered exceptional performances in front of goalkeeper Orlando Mosquera.
However, they face a robust and challenging Honduras side. Spearheaded by striker Romell Quioto, Honduras recovered admirably with victories over El Salvador and Curaçao in the group stage following their tournament-opening 6-0 defeat to Canada, and will present a formidable obstacle.
Prediction: Panama 1–1 Honduras (Panama Advance)