ไทย
English
中國人
Before March concludes, the U.S. men's national team will have a complete picture of its group stage schedule for the 2026 World Cup on home turf.
The USMNT opens their campaign against Paraguay on June 12 in Los Angeles, then faces Australia on June 19 in Seattle, but their third opponent on June 25, back in Los Angeles, remains unknown.
The March international window features the USMNT squaring off against already-qualified UEFA heavyweights Portugal and Belgium in Atlanta, while the team also keeps a close eye on Europe, where Türkiye, Romania, Kosovo and Slovakia battle for the last spot in Group D.
The UEFA playoffs unfold over two rounds, beginning with semifinal clashes between Türkiye and Romania and Kosovo against Slovakia, with the victors meeting in a winner-takes-all match for the final berth in the USMNT's group this summer.
Here, Sports Illustrated ranks each playoff contender by their chances of securing qualification.
UEFA World Cup Playoffs Path C
Semifinal — Türkiye vs. Romania
Semifinal — Slovakia vs. Kosovo
UEFA Path C Final
4. Romania
Romania will require something close to a miracle to eliminate Türkiye in the semifinal. Should they pull it off, they would carry tremendous momentum into a final against a potentially beatable Slovakia or Kosovo—so the route to qualification does exist.
Under manager Mircea Lucescu, they finished third in their qualifying group behind Austria and Bosnia and Herzegovina, yet delivered a notable 1–0 victory over Austria in the October window before closing out with a 7–1 thrashing of minnows San Marino.
Any realistic shot at qualifying hinges on the confidence drawn from that result against Austria, along with the standout contributions of Radu Drăgușin and Dennis Man.
3. Kosovo
With talent scattered across Europe's elite leagues, Kosovo could make history by qualifying for a major tournament for the first time since declaring independence 16 years ago. Their squad features players throughout Serie A, including captain and center back Amir Rrahmani of Napoli, as well as several in the Bundesliga, most notably 23-year-old TSG Hoffenheim standout Fisnik Asllani.
Nevertheless, their greatest weapon will likely be 31-year-old striker Vedat Muriqi, who has been in devastating form in La Liga this season, scoring 18 goals in 28 appearances and sitting second in the Golden Boot standings, trailing only France and Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappé.
While a match against Slovakia appears winnable given recent victories over Slovenia and Sweden in 2025, a potential final against Türkiye may prove to be a bridge too far.
2. Slovakia
Slovakia has a genuine shot at qualifying, having advanced to the knockout stages in two of the last three World Cups.
They placed second in their qualifying group, finishing just behind Germany for the automatic World Cup berth while outpacing both World Cup hopefuls Northern Ireland and Luxembourg. The gap with Germany came down to three points following Slovakia's defeat to Northern Ireland—yet they stayed in the hunt until the final matchday with a 2–0 win over Germany back in September.
Armed with the quality of Napoli's Stanislav Lobotka, Atlético Madrid's Dávid Hancko and Fenerbahçe's Milan Škriniar, Slovakia possesses genuine match-winners. That said, they must rediscover their attacking sharpness, having scored just six goals across their final six group-stage qualifying fixtures.
1. Türkiye
Türkiye enters the playoffs as the clear frontrunner, boasting the likes of Arda Güler, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Kenan Yıldız, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Barış Alper Yılmaz and Kerem Aktürkoğlu, among others, driving their squad.
They finished second in their qualifying group, only behind Spain, the reigning European champions. In virtually any other pool, their performances would have likely been enough to secure automatic World Cup qualification. The pressure to navigate the playoffs successfully is immense.
While the road won't be straightforward against Romania, Türkiye arrives in excellent form under manager Vincenzo Montella. Since their defeat to Spain in the autumn, which ultimately denied them automatic qualification, the side has strung together convincing victories over Georgia and Bulgaria and earned a 2–2 draw against La Roja in the final group-stage qualifying match.
They will aim to control possession against Romania and remain alert to counterattacks, which will likely be Romania's primary strategy for causing an upset in the semifinal. Should it come to the final, their quality also surpasses both Slovakia and Kosovo, at least on paper.
Were they to reach the World Cup, they would pose a serious challenge for the USMNT as well, having defeated the Stars and Stripes 2–1 ahead of the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup.