Who Could Mexico Face? Breaking Down Their Potential 2026 World Cup Rivals

The atmosphere in Mexico remains somber as El Tri attempts to break free from their struggles, though optimism may return with Friday's 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage draw.

A terrible streak of results following their Gold Cup victory this summer has left fans worried about the worst-case scenario as Mexico prepares to jointly host an expanded World Cup with the United States and Canada. To restore confidence, supporters will be hoping to dodge the tournament's strongest teams in the forthcoming draw.

There are 27 qualified nations and 16 possible playoff victors that Mexico might encounter in the group phase, though they will compete against only three other teams in Group A come June.

Below are the squads Mexico could potentially meet in the group stage.

How Will the 2026 World Cup Draw Work for Mexico?

Given their host nation status, Mexico has been assigned to Pot 1 for next summer's competition. This positioning means they will sidestep all other teams in their pot, including numerous European powerhouses and South American giants.

Mexico will face one nation each from Pots 2, 3, and 4 during Friday's draw, though they cannot meet any fellow CONCACAF team. No encounters with the USMNT, Canada, Panama, Haiti, Curaçao, or playoff contenders Suriname and Jamaica will occur.

Given the chance of a CONCACAF team advancing through the inter-confederation playoff, Mexico cannot be matched against any squad participating in those matches. This eliminates not only Suriname and Jamaica, but also Bolivia, Iraq, DR Congo, and New Caledonia from consideration.

Potential World Cup Group Stage Opponents for Mexico

Pot 2

Pot 3

Pot 4

*Winning playoff teams will only be determined in March 2026

Most Favorable World Cup Draw for Mexico

Each World Cup group must include at least one UEFA representative, meaning Mexico cannot completely avoid a European opponent. Consequently, Austria might represent their best option from Pot 2, despite ranking slightly higher than Australia.

Previous World Cup hosts South Africa represent the lowest-ranked team from Pot 3, just below 2034 hosts Saudi Arabia. Mexico encountered the CAF representative in the tournament opener in 2010, securing a 1–1 draw in that match.

With 149th-ranked playoff participant New Caledonia unavailable to Mexico, their OFC counterparts New Zealand would be El Tri's most manageable Pot 4 adversaries.

Most Challenging World Cup Draw for Mexico

Mexico's most difficult group would feature two UEFA teams, including 2018 runners-up and 2022 semifinalists Croatia from Pot 2. Zlatko Dalić's squad has extensive experience in deep World Cup campaigns and possesses exceptional talent throughout their lineup.

Norway technically represents the strongest Pot 3 team, but no more than two UEFA nations can appear in one group—and Mexico might face an even higher-ranked European team from Pot 4. This means Egypt, positioned just five spots below the Norwegians, could present the most formidable challenge.

Italy sits 12th in the rankings but must qualify through the playoffs after being eliminated by Norway in qualification. Nevertheless, the Azzurri would theoretically pose tougher opposition than Erling Haaland and his teammates.

*Playoff team

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