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The stakes for the U.S. men's national team have never been greater. Hosting the men's FIFA World Cup on American soil for only the second time—co-hosting the 2026 edition alongside Canada and Mexico—expectations are sky-high for the team to make a deep run in the competition.
With the advantage of playing at home, a squad of players set to compete in the top tiers of their domestic leagues next season, and an accomplished manager in Mauricio Pochettino leading the charge, there is genuine confidence that the Americans can advance further than ever before.
Pochettino himself posed the question, "Why not us?" when reflecting on the path to glory. While lifting the World Cup trophy remains a long shot, it serves as the ultimate goal for every competing nation—and the USMNT truly believes it belongs among the world's best.
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The USMNT opens group stage play on Friday against Paraguay in Los Angeles, before heading to Seattle to take on Australia. The Stars and Stripes conclude Group D action back in Los Angeles against Türkiye. It's not the most daunting group, but it's far from a walk in the park.
Here, Sports Illustrated examines what stage of the World Cup the USMNT needs to reach this summer for their campaign to be considered a success.
Failure—Group Stage Exit
Should the USMNT bow out in the group stage, as they did at the 2024 Copa América, it would represent a complete and utter failure. Several players would likely see their international careers come to an end, and Pochettino would go down as one of the most notable coaching disappointments in national team history.
As damaging as missing the 2018 World Cup in Russia entirely was, it helped usher in a new generation and shift focus away from veterans like Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore, and Clint Dempsey. A group-stage elimination at a home World Cup could prove an even greater embarrassment, given the immense global attention it would attract.
Missed Opportunity—Advance as No. 2 or No. 3, Lose in Round of 32
Topping Group D will be the primary objective for the USMNT, though the team can still progress by finishing second, or even third with a strong enough showing, as the best eight third-place finishers will advance to the round of 32.
A second- or third-place group finish, likely the result of one or two underwhelming performances, would generate a mixed reaction from fans. While progressing to the knockout rounds is undeniably a positive outcome, the team would then face a considerably stronger opponent in the first elimination round. Falling to such a powerhouse would feel more like a squandered chance than a true program failure.
The round of 32 is a new addition to the tournament this year, as the field has grown to 48 teams, but the USMNT has not won a knockout stage match at the World Cup since the 2002 tournament held in Japan and South Korea.
Shock and Disappointment—Win Group D, Lose in Round of 32
Should the USMNT finish atop Group D, they would face a round of 32 matchup against one of the third-place finishers from Group B, E, F, I, or J, potentially setting up a co-host showdown with Canada, a side that could realistically finish third in Group B.
Claiming the group stage against formidable opponents like Australia and Türkiye would generate enormous belief and excitement around the USMNT. Even so, a defeat to a lesser-performing team in the following round of 32 would feel like a gut punch and a letdown after weeks of building momentum.
Expectation—Win or No. 2 in Group D, Lose in Round of 16
The USMNT has reached the World Cup quarterfinals just once, back in 2002. Advancing to the round of 16 has since become the benchmark for the program, and they achieved that milestone in the 32-team tournament in Qatar four years ago before being knocked out by the Netherlands.
If the Americans win or finish second in Group D and claim victory in a round of 32 knockout match, they will have met expectations for a program on the rise. Those wins would demonstrate the resilience to succeed in high-pressure moments, though the team could then realistically run into a truly elite opponent in the second knockout round.
Success—Eliminated in Quarterfinals or Beyond
If the USMNT is eliminated by a top-tier side in the World Cup quarterfinals, the team will have delivered four weeks of thrilling football and genuine hope to their supporters, while establishing real momentum through a pair of knockout victories and a strong group stage showing.
While a quarterfinal exit would already rank among the finest USMNT performances at a World Cup, anything beyond that would enter the realm of the extraordinary. The prospect of the USMNT in a semifinal, a final, or even hoisting the World Cup trophy? That would be nothing short of remarkable—but simply reaching the quarterfinals alone would make this USMNT campaign an undeniable triumph.