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With just four Premier League games left to play, the battle for Champions League qualification is entering its final stages.
Title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City have already secured their spots in Europe's top club competition, but the picture becomes murkier further down the table.
Manchester United sit in the strongest position among the chasing pack after their Monday night win over Brentford, which extended their lead over sixth place to 11 points, while Aston Villa and Liverpool look well-placed to claim the remaining top-five spots.
Chelsea's situation is far less straightforward. Currently sitting eighth, they appear to be fighting an uphill battle for a Champions League place, though they remain better positioned than Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion to mount a late charge for that crucial fifth spot.
With that in mind, here's how the remaining Premier League schedules stack up for Man Utd, Liverpool, Villa and Chelsea.
How Man Utd, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea's Fixtures Compare
Man Utd (61 points) | Liverpool (58 points) | Aston Villa (58 points) | Chelsea (48 points) |
|---|---|---|---|
Liverpool (H) | Man Utd (A) | Tottenham (H) | Nott'm Forest (H) |
Sunderland (A) | Chelsea (H) | Burnley (A) | Liverpool (A) |
Nott'm Forest (H) | Aston Villa (A) | Liverpool (H) | Tottenham (H) |
Brighton (A) | Brentford (H) | Man City (A) | Sunderland (A) |
Chelsea face a substantial points gap to bridge. Trailing fifth-placed Villa by 10 points, Opta's supercomputer gives them a mere 0.58% probability of securing Champions League football. Even a perfect run of results may not be sufficient.
On paper, the Blues do have some favourable-looking games. A visit to Anfield gives them a chance to eat into Liverpool's advantage, with that match bookended by home ties against relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur—the prospect of sending the latter down at Stamford Bridge a very real one. Chelsea then round off their season with a trip to Sunderland, who defeated them earlier this campaign.
There is, however, an alternative route to the Champions League for Chelsea, though it lies entirely beyond their control. They would need Villa to finish fifth in the Premier League and lift the Europa League trophy, while Chelsea themselves finish sixth.
Liverpool look highly unlikely to relinquish their Champions League place, though a demanding run of fixtures introduces a degree of uncertainty. The Reds face trips to Man Utd and Villa in their next three outings, with a home clash against Chelsea sandwiched in between.
Given Liverpool's inconsistent form, it's not entirely inconceivable that they fail to pick up a win in any of those games, allowing rivals to close the gap. Currently eight points ahead of sixth place, they conclude their season at home to Brentford—a side also chasing European football. Liverpool need no more than five points from their remaining fixtures to confirm their qualification.
Separated from Liverpool only by goal difference, Villa will be eager to seal their Champions League spot as soon as possible so they can direct their full attention to the Europa League. The first leg of their semifinal against Nottingham Forest takes place this Thursday.
Back-to-back home and away fixtures against struggling Tottenham and already relegated Burnley offer Villa a prime opportunity to get the job done early, before tougher tests await in the form of Liverpool at Villa Park and a trip to Manchester City.
Man Utd can afford to relax. They require just two points from their final four matches to complete the remarkable turnaround that Michael Carrick set in motion back in January, and it would be particularly satisfying to seal the deal with a win over fierce rivals Liverpool this weekend.
Should that not materialise, three further opportunities remain. A home fixture against Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford falls between away trips at opposite ends of the country—a visit to Sunderland before the journey south to Brighton.