Race to the Title: When Arsenal or Man City Could Clinch the Premier League Crown

Earlier in this season, Mikel Arteta suggested that any side with title ambitions would need to accumulate "over 90 points."

That bold claim has not aged well. Neither Arsenal nor Manchester City can now reach more than 85 points. There is a genuine possibility that both clubs finish the season level on that modest total.

That said, such a scenario assumes both teams string together winning runs that have largely eluded them throughout the campaign—which is precisely why Arteta's ambitious forecast has failed to materialise. With a dramatic run-in still ahead, here's a breakdown of how and when the title could ultimately be decided.

The Earliest Date Arsenal Could Win the 2025–26 Premier League Title

It might feel unthinkable in the wake of their loss at the Etihad, but Arsenal still hold their destiny in their own hands. There is even a scenario in which the Gunners could be lifting the trophy as early as May 10.

For Arteta's men to end the club's 22-year wait for a league title with two matches remaining, Manchester City would need to collect no more than two points from their next three fixtures against Burnley, Everton and Brentford.

In that admittedly improbable scenario, Arsenal could seal the championship by beating Newcastle United, Fulham and then West Ham United at the London Stadium on Sunday, May 10.

Arsenal's Earliest Coronation

The Earliest Date Man City Could Win the 2025–26 Premier League Title

Manchester City will need to be more patient than Arsenal in their pursuit of the title. Even if Guardiola's squad reels off three consecutive wins while Arsenal suffer a corresponding run of defeats, they will still enter mid-May without the championship secured.

Should City's game in hand against Crystal Palace be scheduled for May 22 as widely anticipated (though not yet officially confirmed), the reigning champions could theoretically clinch the title on the weekend of May 17.

The Premier League has yet to announce the specific dates and kick-off times for those fixtures—broadcasters will be waiting to identify the most pivotal matches before assigning the prime slots—so it remains unclear whether City would even need to take to the pitch that weekend.

Man City's Earliest Coronation

* Exact time and date to be confirmed.

How the Premier League Title Race Can Come Down to the Final Day

There is a very real chance that Arsenal and Manchester City are not only still locked in a title battle come Sunday, May 24, but could even be level on points going into that final round of fixtures.

If both clubs win all of their remaining games, they will be tied on 82 points with just one match left to play. Given how closely matched the two sides are on goal difference and goals scored, there is even a possibility that the rarely invoked tiebreaker of head-to-head results comes into play. Under that scenario, City would be crowned champions, having edged Arsenal at the Etihad following a draw at the Emirates earlier in the season.

Arsenal have the more favourable run of fixtures on paper, though both clubs would be expected to overcome their respective final-day opponents.

While the Gunners make the trip to Crystal Palace's Selhurst Park, City welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad. Arteta's side have already beaten their London neighbours twice this season, including knocking the Eagles out of the Carabao Cup quarterfinals after Eberechi Eze netted the only goal against his former club at the Emirates.

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal

City fell to defeat against Villa when the two sides met back in October; Matty Cash settled the contest with a well-taken strike from a corner routine. At that stage, City found themselves fifth in the standings, behind Arsenal, Bournemouth, Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland. Six months on, a victory against those same opponents could seal one of Guardiola's most remarkable title wins.

The Catalan manager has a strong historical record to lean on. City have won their last 15 Premier League home games against Aston Villa at the Etihad, a sequence dating back to April 2007 when Stuart Pearce's side were beaten by a Villa team featuring Ashley Young and Gabby Agbonlahor.

Man City vs. Aston Villa